Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

<ul>
<li>Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
</ul>


Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).
The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.


DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170<span id="autocomplete"><span id="autocomplete-searchtext"></span></span>
</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170



Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

United States

KBR, Inc. is a global engineering, construction, and services company supporting the energy, petrochemicals, government services, and civil infrastructure sectors.  The Company offers a wide range of services through two business segments, Energy and Chemicals (E&C) and Government and Infrastructure (G&I).

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KBR (KBR US)

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

$DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX $RSP, Dow $DJI, and Russell 2000 $IWM $RTY. $SPX remains bullish as...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 $IWM Testing $180 Support; $RTY $SPX Breadth Remains Constructive; Highlighting buy ideas in Services (Research/Consulting &...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

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