Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.</li><li>The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.</li><li>We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.</li></ul>

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.</li>
<li>Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.</li>
</ul>


Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.
USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.
Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.


‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?</li>
<li>In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.</li>
<li>The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!</li>
</ul>


It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?
In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.
The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We are making U.S. financials a high conviction buy idea for the following reasons</li>
<li>Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve.</li>
<li>Sector shows strong technical strength and strong contrarian buy signals.</li>
</ul>


We are making U.S. financials a high conviction buy idea for the following reasons
Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve.
Sector shows strong technical strength and strong contrarian buy signals.


2024 High Conviction Idea: Buy U.S. Financials

United States

The KBW Bank Index is designed to track the performance of the leading banks and thrifts that are publicly-traded in the U.S. The Index includes 24 banking stocks representing the large U.S. national money centers, regional banks and thrift institutions.

KBW Bank Index (BKX INDEX)

Macro Nugget: US Banks

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector. The Reverse Repo facility...

Steno Research

‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

San Francisco's office vacancy rate is at a whopping 29.5%. And the bad news is that it's not really an outlier; pressure on US commercial real...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

I explain why the odds of a systemic banking crisis are limited, yet not zero. But like the soft landing, the Federal Reserve will cut rates...

Jeroen Blokland

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

2024 High Conviction Idea: Buy U.S. Financials

Buy U.S. Financials for: Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve; strong technical strength; and contrarian buy...

Cam Hui