Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.</li><li>The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.</li><li>We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.</li></ul>

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.</li>
<li>Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.</li>
</ul>


Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.
USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.
Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.


‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.</li><li>Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of <strong>three highly reputable banks</strong> - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.</li><li>I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.</li></ul>

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of three highly reputable banks - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?</li>
<li>In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.</li>
<li>The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!</li>
</ul>


It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?
In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.
The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

United States

The KBW Bank Index is designed to track the performance of the leading banks and thrifts that are publicly-traded in the U.S. The Index includes 24 banking stocks representing the large U.S. national money centers, regional banks and thrift institutions.

KBW Bank Index (BKX INDEX)

Macro Nugget: US Banks

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector. The Reverse Repo facility...

Steno Research

‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

San Francisco's office vacancy rate is at a whopping 29.5%. And the bad news is that it's not really an outlier; pressure on US commercial real...

Jeroen Blokland

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in...

Acid Investments

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

I explain why the odds of a systemic banking crisis are limited, yet not zero. But like the soft landing, the Federal Reserve will cut rates...

Jeroen Blokland