Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. </li>
<li>Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.</li>
<li>Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. </li>
</ul>


Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. 
Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.
Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. 


Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

<ul>
<li>Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.</li>
<li>Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. </li>
<li>PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.</li>
</ul>


Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.
Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. 
PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.


Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB1619K0W6A710C2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> reported that EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> has increased its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> to the mid-JPY3,400, while Bloomberg reported that EQT/DG is now offering JPY3,440-3,460 per share.</li>
<li>The latest EQT/DG offer is designed to game the competing-offer clauses to retain the Board's and KDDI’s support and potentially secure Oasis's allegiance.</li>
<li>The bidding battle is not done yet. By increasing its offer by 1% from JPY3,384 to JPY3,419 (from JPY3,500 to JPY3,535 on an equivalent basis), Bain/LY can regain the advantage.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei reported that EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) has increased its offer for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) to the mid-JPY3,400, while Bloomberg reported that EQT/DG is now offering JPY3,440-3,460 per share.
The latest EQT/DG offer is designed to game the competing-offer clauses to retain the Board's and KDDI’s support and potentially secure Oasis's allegiance.
The bidding battle is not done yet. By increasing its offer by 1% from JPY3,384 to JPY3,419 (from JPY3,500 to JPY3,535 on an equivalent basis), Bain/LY can regain the advantage.


Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

The intensity of competition between the big 3 in e-commerce (Amazon, Rakuten, Z Holdings) means that all are investing heavily. Amazon leads but...

Michael Causton

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

Japan is shifting from 80-90% cash retail transactions to 40-50% cashless in the blink of an eye. Softbank/Z HD dominates with nearly 50% share and...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Sheer Gamesmanship

In line with yesterday’s media articles, EQT/DG have increased its offer to JPY3,450, a 4.5% premium to its JPY3,300 offer (22 June). The closing...

Arun George

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