Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lawson is the third largest convenience store chain nowadays, but a recent poll revealed it to be the second most popular – and it is gaining on leader Seven Eleven. </li>
<li>The company has released a slew of new developments in the past couple of months, some of which point to the future of retailing here.</li>
<li>They also show the potential for Seven Eleven Japan but only if it follows the same path.</li>
</ul>


Lawson is the third largest convenience store chain nowadays, but a recent poll revealed it to be the second most popular – and it is gaining on leader Seven Eleven. 
The company has released a slew of new developments in the past couple of months, some of which point to the future of retailing here.
They also show the potential for Seven Eleven Japan but only if it follows the same path.


Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.</li>
<li>Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.</li>
<li>The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.</li>
</ul>


Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.
Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.
The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.


Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> revised its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer to JPY3,680, a 3.1% premium to the previous JPY3,571 offer and a 4.5% premium to Bain/LY’s JPY3,520 base offer. </li>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a>’s "<em>wait and let EQT/DG fail</em>" play has been undercut as it marks the first time that EQT/DG has exceeded Bain/LY’s conditional offer (KDDI agrees to share buyback). </li>
<li>While the buyout economics have eroded, Bain/LY is likely to return with one final revised offer (possibly a base offer of JPY3,754 and a conditional offer of JPY3,880).</li>
</ul>


EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) revised its Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer to JPY3,680, a 3.1% premium to the previous JPY3,571 offer and a 4.5% premium to Bain/LY’s JPY3,520 base offer. 
Bain/LY (4689 JP)’s "wait and let EQT/DG fail" play has been undercut as it marks the first time that EQT/DG has exceeded Bain/LY’s conditional offer (KDDI agrees to share buyback). 
While the buyout economics have eroded, Bain/LY is likely to return with one final revised offer (possibly a base offer of JPY3,754 and a conditional offer of JPY3,880).


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): No Messing Around as EQT/DG Goes with a JPY3,680 Offer

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.</li>
<li>Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.</li>
<li>Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?</li>
</ul>


Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.
Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.
Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?


Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Lawson: New Ideas for Growth

Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): No Messing Around as EQT/DG Goes with a JPY3,680 Offer

Bain/LY’s "wait and let EQT/DG fail" play has been undercut by the revised offer. While the buyout economics have eroded, Bain/LY is likely to...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lawson: New Ideas for Growth

​Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): No Messing Around as EQT/DG Goes with a JPY3,680 Offer

Bain/LY’s "wait and let EQT/DG fail" play has been undercut by the revised offer. While the buyout economics have eroded, Bain/LY is likely to...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

​Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Lawson is rapidly gaining popularity and innovating in the convenience store industry, posing a threat to current leader Seven Eleven.

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.