Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The growth in retail media (brand advertising delivered in stores based on detailed customer data) continues to be one of the big trends in 2024.</li>
<li>Large retailers are keen to add this new revenue stream – and lots of brands want to advertise with them – and companies like Rakuten are offering this service directly.</li>
<li>For many retailers, they still need help from experts in advertising and data analysis to make it work, providing an opportunity for Hakuhodo among others.</li>
</ul>


The growth in retail media (brand advertising delivered in stores based on detailed customer data) continues to be one of the big trends in 2024.
Large retailers are keen to add this new revenue stream – and lots of brands want to advertise with them – and companies like Rakuten are offering this service directly.
For many retailers, they still need help from experts in advertising and data analysis to make it work, providing an opportunity for Hakuhodo among others.


Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> have kept their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> offer to close, convinced that it will fail. </li>
<li>Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.</li>
<li>The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. </li>
</ul>


Bain/LY (4689 JP) have kept their Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) offer to close, convinced that it will fail. 
Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.
The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. 


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A shift in composition needed in a Japanese portfolio this year</li>
<li>A weaker US and Japanese economy together with a stronger Yen will  make sector allocation key.</li>
<li>Some sectors to avoid or invest in during this next phase.</li>
</ul>


A shift in composition needed in a Japanese portfolio this year
A weaker US and Japanese economy together with a stronger Yen will  make sector allocation key.
Some sectors to avoid or invest in during this next phase.


2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

<ul>
<li>EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> revised its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> to JPY3,570, a 3.5% premium over the previous JPY3,450 offer and a 1.4% premium over Bain/LY’s JPY3,520 base offer.</li>
<li>The latest EQT/DG offer is the minimum needed to stay on the right side of the competing-offer clauses, thereby retaining KDDI’s support and potentially getting Oasis to switch allegiance.</li>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> continue to have room to respond with a revised offer. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards JPY3,800.</li>
</ul>


EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) revised its offer for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) to JPY3,570, a 3.5% premium over the previous JPY3,450 offer and a 1.4% premium over Bain/LY’s JPY3,520 base offer.
The latest EQT/DG offer is the minimum needed to stay on the right side of the competing-offer clauses, thereby retaining KDDI’s support and potentially getting Oasis to switch allegiance.
Bain/LY (4689 JP) continue to have room to respond with a revised offer. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards JPY3,800.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): EQT/DG Again Outbids Bain/LY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...

Rikki Malik

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): EQT/DG Again Outbids Bain/LY

Oasis has no intention of accepting EQT/DG’s revised offer of JPY3,570 as long as it remains below Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer (KDDI exiting via a...

Arun George

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

​Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 4

​In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...

Rikki Malik

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): EQT/DG Again Outbids Bain/LY

Oasis has no intention of accepting EQT/DG’s revised offer of JPY3,570 as long as it remains below Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer (KDDI exiting via a...

Arun George

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Retail media, a big trend in 2024, offers major revenue potential for retailers as well as intermediaries like Hakuhodo in advertising and data...

In light of a weaker US and Japanese economy and a stronger Yen, sector allocation is crucial for Japanese portfolios this year. Certain sectors...