Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; </li>
<li>The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;</li>
<li>Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. </li>
</ul>


Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; 
The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;
Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. 


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

<ul>
<li>Counting of consumption differs among different countries. Chinese definition of consumption (social retail sales) leave out many categories that are included in the definition of consumption of Japan and US;</li>
<li>If we trim the consumption of Japan and US by adopting China's definition, China actually <strong>over-consumes</strong>, both by GDP and by individual categories;</li>
<li>If we expand and align China, Japan and US to consist the same categories, the conclusion of China <strong>underconsumption</strong> becomes true. The categories belong to an older and wealthy society. </li>
</ul>


Counting of consumption differs among different countries. Chinese definition of consumption (social retail sales) leave out many categories that are included in the definition of consumption of Japan and US;
If we trim the consumption of Japan and US by adopting China's definition, China actually over-consumes, both by GDP and by individual categories;
If we expand and align China, Japan and US to consist the same categories, the conclusion of China underconsumption becomes true. The categories belong to an older and wealthy society. 


How to Stimulate China's Consumption? Part I

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>BEKE US:  Takeaways from Beike Investor Day on June 3(/)</li>
<li>9926 HK: Akeso adds sales rights to AK112 in developing countries, possibly preparing for overall sale(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/ LI US: BYD launches fifth-generation hybrid petrol-electric technology, which can run 2,100 kilometers on full-tank+full-battery(///)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US:  Takeaways from Beike Investor Day on June 3(/)
9926 HK: Akeso adds sales rights to AK112 in developing countries, possibly preparing for overall sale(/)
1211 HK/ LI US: BYD launches fifth-generation hybrid petrol-electric technology, which can run 2,100 kilometers on full-tank+full-battery(///)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/9926 HK/1211 HK/ LI US

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KE Holdings (BEKE) reported C1Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI in-line/35% above consensus and guided a modest revenue growth of 10% YoY in C2Q24</li>
<li>We maintain our view that C1Q24 would be the trough as subsequent improvement, albeit at slower magnitude, should happen from C2Q24</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating but lower TP to US$21 to reflect a postponed recovery schedule.</li>
</ul>


KE Holdings (BEKE) reported C1Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI in-line/35% above consensus and guided a modest revenue growth of 10% YoY in C2Q24
We maintain our view that C1Q24 would be the trough as subsequent improvement, albeit at slower magnitude, should happen from C2Q24
We maintain the stock as BUY rating but lower TP to US$21 to reflect a postponed recovery schedule.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$21) TP Change]: New Stimulus Might Be Needed to Spur the Market

<ul>
<li>NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US: EV sales in the 20th week of 2024 NIO, Xiaomi and LI performed well(/////)</li>
<li>BEKE US: Shanghai implements central government policies to further stimulate property market demand from nine aspects.(+)</li>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/1810 HK/ACMR/China semiconductor: China launches Big Fund III to support semiconductor development (+)</li>
</ul>


NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US: EV sales in the 20th week of 2024 NIO, Xiaomi and LI performed well(/////)
BEKE US: Shanghai implements central government policies to further stimulate property market demand from nine aspects.(+)
981 HK/1347 HK/1810 HK/ACMR/China semiconductor: China launches Big Fund III to support semiconductor development (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:NIO US/1810 HK/ LI US/BEKE US/981 HK/1347 HK/ACMR/9926 HK

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

The underdevelopment of China's pension system leads to reliance on the residential property market as social safety net. The headroom of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption? Part I

The myth of China underconsumption depends on how you count it. China under-consumes in certain consumption categories associated with an older and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/9926 HK/1211 HK/ LI US

Key takeaways from recent events: Beike Investor Day insights, Akeso's sales rights expansion, and BYD's innovative hybrid technology launch.

Blue Lotus Research Institute