China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A collapse of real estate speculation destroyed the balance sheets of Chinese households, leading to downward spiral in consumptions. A tremendous stimulus package can reflate the economy, </li>
<li>But it doesn’t solve the structural problems; Unlike semiconductor and biotech, inputs to renewable energy are many and supply chains are long.  To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves </li>
<li>Cost competitive,  which means they can neither realize profits nor retaliate US containments. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest eggs of Chinese retirees.</li>
</ul>


A collapse of real estate speculation destroyed the balance sheets of Chinese households, leading to downward spiral in consumptions. A tremendous stimulus package can reflate the economy, 
But it doesn’t solve the structural problems; Unlike semiconductor and biotech, inputs to renewable energy are many and supply chains are long.  To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves 
Cost competitive,  which means they can neither realize profits nor retaliate US containments. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest eggs of Chinese retirees.


[Blue Lotus Macro]: Economic Stimulus Shouldn’t Be Pain Killers

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2618.HK/002352.CH: Cainiao launching its own national express delivery network (-/-)</li>
<li>3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in community group buying (-/-)</li>
<li>BEKE: Beike is planning to extend business to real estate upstream, exploiting extra value beyond new home sales channel(-)</li>
</ul>


2618.HK/002352.CH: Cainiao launching its own national express delivery network (-/-)
3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in community group buying (-/-)
BEKE: Beike is planning to extend business to real estate upstream, exploiting extra value beyond new home sales channel(-)


China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network

<ul>
<li>NIO: NIO's new order intake in June exceeds 20k units (+)</li>
<li>XPEV: Xpeng is likely to slightly beat 2Q23 guidance (+)</li>
<li>BEKE：Property transactions in June is weak, but likely to bottom-out(-)</li>
</ul>


NIO: NIO's new order intake in June exceeds 20k units (+)
XPEV: Xpeng is likely to slightly beat 2Q23 guidance (+)
BEKE：Property transactions in June is weak, but likely to bottom-out(-)


China TMT Update June 29-NIO/XPEV/BEKE:NIO's New Order Intake;Xpeng Likely to Slightly Beat;

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

<ul>
<li>PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea,  negative to Shopee and Coupang (+/-/-)</li>
<li>KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, leaving more space for potential incentive policies.</li>
<li>BILI: Bilibili's top anchor achieved a single-session GMV of 28 million yuan during the 618 live-streaming sales event (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea,  negative to Shopee and Coupang (+/-/-)
KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, leaving more space for potential incentive policies.
BILI: Bilibili's top anchor achieved a single-session GMV of 28 million yuan during the 618 live-streaming sales event (+)


China/Asia TMT Update-PDD/CPNG/SE/BEKE/BILI:PDD's Temu Plans to Come to ASEAN and South Korea

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[Blue Lotus Macro]: Economic Stimulus Shouldn’t Be Pain Killers

To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves cost competitive. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network

2618.HK/352.CH: Cainiao launching own national express delivery network；3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in CGB；BEKE: Beike is...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update June 29-NIO/XPEV/BEKE:NIO's New Order Intake;Xpeng Likely to Slightly Beat;

NIO: NIO's new order intake in June exceeds 20k units (+);XPEV: Xpeng is likely to slightly beat 2Q23 guidance (+);BEKE：Property transactions in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

China/Asia TMT Update-PDD/CPNG/SE/BEKE/BILI:PDD's Temu Plans to Come to ASEAN and South Korea

PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea，KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, BILI: Bilibili's top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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