Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close of trading on 1 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep (3650 HK)</a> will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 4 December while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> will only be added to Stock Connect in April.</li>
<li>There are lock-up expiries on both stocks, prior to or after inclusion in Stock Connect, and trading strategies will need to take that into account.</li>
</ul>



Keep Inc (3650 HK) and Tuhu Car (9690 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close of trading on 1 December.

Keep (3650 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 4 December while Tuhu Car (9690 HK) will only be added to Stock Connect in April.
There are lock-up expiries on both stocks, prior to or after inclusion in Stock Connect, and trading strategies will need to take that into account.


HSCI Index Rebalance: Keep (3650 HK) & TUHU Car (9690 HK) Added

<ul>
<li>There have only been 7 new listings on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> in the third quarter of the year so far.</li>
<li>Of those stocks, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There have only been 7 new listings on the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter of the year so far.
Of those stocks, only Keep Inc (3650 HK) has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.

Keep Inc (3650 HK) is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (3650 HK)</a> , the largest online fitness platform in China, announced interim results for the six months ended Jun-23. The overall revenue growth is slowing down. </li>
<li>The company completed its Hong Kong IPO of ~10.8M shares at HK$28.92 (bottom of the range) and raised ~HK$192M (~$25M) of net proceeds. CICC led the offering.</li>
<li>Keep appears well capitalized to outperform despite China's temporary slowdown in fitness activities. I remain cautious on Keep stock after a downsized IPO, but I like the long-term fitness story. </li>
</ul>



Keep Inc (3650 HK) , the largest online fitness platform in China, announced interim results for the six months ended Jun-23. The overall revenue growth is slowing down. 
The company completed its Hong Kong IPO of ~10.8M shares at HK$28.92 (bottom of the range) and raised ~HK$192M (~$25M) of net proceeds. CICC led the offering.
Keep appears well capitalized to outperform despite China's temporary slowdown in fitness activities. I remain cautious on Keep stock after a downsized IPO, but I like the long-term fitness story. 


Keep (3650): Mixed H123 and Slow Post-Pandemic Recovery. Will Growth Story Come To an End?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Keep Inc., the largest online fitness platform in China, set terms for HK IPO and plans to raise ~HK$667M at the high end of the range at HK$61.46/share. </li>
<li>CICC is leading the offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (KEEP HK)</a> will trade under the stock code “3650”. The company offers ~10.8M shares at a price range of HK$28.92-HK$61.46.</li>
<li>The low end of the range implies an IPO valuation of HK$15B, which looks attractive and is equal to the last round valuation of ~$2B that was led by SoftBank.</li>
</ul>


Keep Inc., the largest online fitness platform in China, set terms for HK IPO and plans to raise ~HK$667M at the high end of the range at HK$61.46/share. 
CICC is leading the offering and Keep Inc (KEEP HK) will trade under the stock code “3650”. The company offers ~10.8M shares at a price range of HK$28.92-HK$61.46.
The low end of the range implies an IPO valuation of HK$15B, which looks attractive and is equal to the last round valuation of ~$2B that was led by SoftBank.


Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keep-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35947:1" rel="noopener">Keep Inc (KEEP HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Keep is an online fitness platform, offering online fitness content, smart fitness devices and fitness products.
In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.


Keep Pre-IPO - Updates Since Our Last Note - Losses Have Been the Only Constant

China

Keep Inc. develops fitness platform providing comprehensive fitness solutions. The Company offers recorded courses and live streaming classes, and sells self-branded fitness devices and products. Keep serves clients in China.

Keep Inc (3650 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: Keep (3650 HK) & TUHU Car (9690 HK) Added

Keep Inc and TUHU Car will be added to the HSCI in Dec. Keep will be added to Stock Connect from 4 Dec while TUHU Car will only join the link in...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

Only Keep (3650 HK) had a chance of being added to the HSCI in Dec. Coming in right at the cutoff, price moves over the next two weeks are...

Brian Freitas

Keep (3650): Mixed H123 and Slow Post-Pandemic Recovery. Will Growth Story Come To an End?

Keep Inc., China's largest online fitness platform, reported mixed H123 interim results in August, pushing shares down over 10% during a regular...

Andrei Zakharov

Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023

Founder-led fitness technology unicorn Keep set terms for Hong Kong IPO and plans to raise ~HK$667M at the high end of the range at HK$61.46/share....

Andrei Zakharov

Keep Pre-IPO - Updates Since Our Last Note - Losses Have Been the Only Constant

Keep Inc (KEEP HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss the updates since our last note.

Clarence Chu