Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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 Volume and margin: Q2 FY26 revenue fell 1.3% to PHP 4.9bn as volumes declined 6.7%; gross margin compressed 431bp to 22.1% on EUR/PHP and excise costs.</li>
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 Earnings held below the line: H1 net income still rose 7.2% to PHP 1.74bn, carried by a PHP 239mn other income line on FX gains and higher interest income.</li>
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At PHP 1.93, the stock trades at 7.3x FY26e PE, 4.6x EV/EBITDA, and 6.1% yield. We need to monitor the current weak consumer sentiment and FX scenario for earnings downgrades.</li>
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 Volume and margin: Q2 FY26 revenue fell 1.3% to PHP 4.9bn as volumes declined 6.7%; gross margin compressed 431bp to 22.1% on EUR/PHP and excise costs.

 Earnings held below the line: H1 net income still rose 7.2% to PHP 1.74bn, carried by a PHP 239mn other income line on FX gains and higher interest income.

At PHP 1.93, the stock trades at 7.3x FY26e PE, 4.6x EV/EBITDA, and 6.1% yield. We need to monitor the current weak consumer sentiment and FX scenario for earnings downgrades.


The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) Q2 FY2026 Concall: Tepid Demand In The Short Term

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.</li>
<li>We update our readers on developments in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
We update our readers on developments in Asian Terminals (ATI PM) and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - June 2025

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Revenue and Profits: Q1 FY26 revenue grew 6.1% YoY to PHP 4.3bn; net income surged 17.6% YoY to PHP 811mn on opex discipline and brand volume strength.</li>
<li>
 Booze Online Acquisition: Both parties in active discussions; AB InBev in Manila for meetings; deal expected to close H1 FY26 pending finalization of fund details and valuation.</li>
<li>
Valuation: At PHP 1.98, KEEPR trades at 7.5x FY26e PE and 4.8x FY26e EV/EBITDA, with 30% of the market cap in cash and a 6% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Revenue and Profits: Q1 FY26 revenue grew 6.1% YoY to PHP 4.3bn; net income surged 17.6% YoY to PHP 811mn on opex discipline and brand volume strength.

 Booze Online Acquisition: Both parties in active discussions; AB InBev in Manila for meetings; deal expected to close H1 FY26 pending finalization of fund details and valuation.

Valuation: At PHP 1.98, KEEPR trades at 7.5x FY26e PE and 4.8x FY26e EV/EBITDA, with 30% of the market cap in cash and a 6% dividend yield.


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): 30% of Market Cap in Cash, 6% Yield, 7.5x PE, and Nobody's Watching

<ul>
<li>
 FY25 revenue grew 9% YoY to PHP 20.2bn. Net income was PHP 3.56bn, up 0.8% YoY, impacted by forex headwinds as the EUR/PHP cross moved from ~60 to 69 pesos.</li>
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Booze Online acquisition (AB InBev portfolio: Corona, Stella, Budweiser, Hoegaarden, Paulaner) is progressing; deal closure is expected mid-2026. A third "pillar" beyond wine and spirits will significantly expand the TAM.</li>
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Balance sheet remains fortress-like: PHP 8.4bn in cash with ROE of ~19.5%, disciplined payout at 50% (PHP 0.12/share dividend approved). Stock trades at 8.7x FY25 P/E with ~5.5% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



 FY25 revenue grew 9% YoY to PHP 20.2bn. Net income was PHP 3.56bn, up 0.8% YoY, impacted by forex headwinds as the EUR/PHP cross moved from ~60 to 69 pesos.

Booze Online acquisition (AB InBev portfolio: Corona, Stella, Budweiser, Hoegaarden, Paulaner) is progressing; deal closure is expected mid-2026. A third "pillar" beyond wine and spirits will significantly expand the TAM.

Balance sheet remains fortress-like: PHP 8.4bn in cash with ROE of ~19.5%, disciplined payout at 50% (PHP 0.12/share dividend approved). Stock trades at 8.7x FY25 P/E with ~5.5% dividend yield.


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): FY25 Concall Summary

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>We focus on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a>, the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.</li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), ICTSI (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
We focus on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

Philippines

Keepers Holdings, Inc. is a publicly-listed investment holding company engaged in the liquor, wine, and specialty beverage distribution business in the Philippines. The company distributes a wide range of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, including brandy, whiskies, spirits, wines, beers, sparkling water, and energy drinks, through its subsidiaries Montosco, Inc., Meritus Prime Distributions, Inc., and Premier Wine & Spirits Inc. It was incorporated in 1963 and is based in Manila, the Philippines.

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Keepers (KEEPR PM)

The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) Q2 FY2026 Concall: Tepid Demand In The Short Term

PHL imported spirits leader. H1 sales +2%, GP to 23.7% on EUR/PHP 70.8. NP +7.2% on FX and interest. 7.3x FY26e PE, 6.1% yield.

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - June 2025

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates.

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): 30% of Market Cap in Cash, 6% Yield, 7.5x PE, and Nobody's Watching

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Resilient Q1FY26: PHL imported spirits monopoly (74% share); brandy-led volume growth; 9bn PHP cash; ~6% yield; 7.5x...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): FY25 Concall Summary

KEEPR PM: Solid FY25 at 8.7x PE — forex headwinds masked resilient core growth. Booze Online (Corona/Stella) + Liquer Exports = underappreciated...

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja

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