Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the next couple of weeks, we will focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls</li>
<li>Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-inox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/d-b-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6044:1" rel="noopener">D.B. Corp Ltd (DBCL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiamart-intermesh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27733:1" rel="noopener">IndiaMart (INMART IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gopal-snacks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40960:1" rel="noopener">Gopal Snacks (GOPAL IN)</a> are names that we have a bearish view on. </li>
</ul>


Over the next couple of weeks, we will focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls
Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas include HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN), Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) &amp; Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN).

D.B. Corp Ltd (DBCL IN), IndiaMart (INMART IN) &amp; Gopal Snacks (GOPAL IN) are names that we have a bearish view on. 


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Editions Are Back

<ul>
<li>We spoke to cable distributors and industry experts to understand any concerns regarding industry-wide inventory levels and to gauge the current demand environment.</li>
<li>Stocks in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kei-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6711:1" rel="noopener">KEI Industries (KEII IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/r-r-kabel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39810:1" rel="noopener">R R Kabel (2333180Z IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>Overall industry business momentum remains strong, project delays and competition warrant attention. </li>
</ul>


We spoke to cable distributors and industry experts to understand any concerns regarding industry-wide inventory levels and to gauge the current demand environment.
Stocks in focus include Polycab India (POLYCAB IN); KEI Industries (KEII IN) &amp; R R Kabel (2333180Z IN).  
Overall industry business momentum remains strong, project delays and competition warrant attention. 


Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) | Inventory, Demand Environment & Competition

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Motilal Oswal's research report onKEI Industries KEI Industries (KEII)’s 4QFY24 performance was in line with our estimates.</li><li>Revenue grew 19% YoY to INR23.2b (vs. est. INR22.6b), fueled by 18%/53% YoY growth in the cables &amp; wires/EPC segments, while stainless steel wires’ revenue declined 11% YoY.</li><li>EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.4b (vs. est. INR2.5b). Profit increased 22% YoY to INR1.7b (vs. est. INR1.8b) in 4QFY24. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Motilal Oswal's research report onKEI Industries KEI Industries (KEII)’s 4QFY24 performance was in line with our estimates.Revenue grew 19% YoY to INR23.2b (vs. est. INR22.6b), fueled by 18%/53% YoY growth in the cables &amp; wires/EPC segments, while stainless steel wires’ revenue declined 11% YoY.EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.4b (vs. est. INR2.5b). Profit increased 22% YoY to INR1.7b (vs. est. INR1.8b) in 4QFY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

KEI Industries - Healthy Performance; Outlook Remains Positive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> too.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the NIFTY Index and Nifty Next 50 Index too.
The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> changes in March.</li>
<li>On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

India

KEI Industries Limited manufactures cables and stainless steel wires for the building and construction, defense, telecommunications, and other industries.

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KEI Industries (KEII IN)

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Editions Are Back

Focus on key earnings and conference calls. Top Large Cap Bullish Ideas: HDFC Asset Management, Bajaj Auto, Pvr Inox. Bearish view on D.B. Corp,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) | Inventory, Demand Environment & Competition

This insight focuses on stocks like Polycab India, KEI Industries, and R R Kabel. Despite strong momentum, project delays and competition are key...

Pranav Bhavsar

KEI Industries - Healthy Performance; Outlook Remains Positive

Revenue grew 19% YoY to INR23.2b (vs. est. INR22.6b), fueled by 18%/53% YoY growth in the cables & wires/EPC segments, while stainless steel wires’...

Motilal Oswal

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

We see 41 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

We see 43 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

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