Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.</li>
<li>Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.
Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.
Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.


J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its  Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its  Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


J&T Global Express IPO - Team Effort for Some Heavy Lifting

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn</li>
<li>Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative</li>
<li>Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names</li>
</ul>


In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn
Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative
Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

Thailand

Kerry Express Thailand is a parcel delivery provider in Thailand

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Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)

J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

J&T's shares will commence trading at the HKEx on Friday, 27th October and the company's HK offering and international offering were only...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

J&T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO - Team Effort for Some Heavy Lifting

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

In this insight we consider the assumptions for top-line growth and margin improvement that could conceivably get us (closer) to the company's...

Tracking Traffic

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