IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in contract liabilities and declining FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case. 
The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in contract liabilities and declining FCF burn.


J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>H1 results from KEX Thailand and Kerry Logistics can help us understand J&amp;T Global Express</li>
<li>Thailand likely to be a medium-term drag on J&amp;T's earnings, in our view</li>
<li>But if KLN's H1 results are representative, rest of SE Asia is probably OK</li>
</ul>


H1 results from KEX Thailand and Kerry Logistics can help us understand J&amp;T Global Express
Thailand likely to be a medium-term drag on J&amp;T's earnings, in our view
But if KLN's H1 results are representative, rest of SE Asia is probably OK


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 4: Read-Through from KEX (Thailand) And Kerry Logistics H1 Results

<ul>
<li>After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics</li>
<li>Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term</li>
<li>We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)</li>
</ul>


After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

<ul>
<li>In this insight we look at the development of J&amp;T's China business over the past few years, including J&amp;T's purchase of Best Inc's express operation in late 2021</li>
<li>We also compare J&amp;T's Chinese operation to five listed Chinese express companies in terms of scale, market position, financial performance, and relationships with e-comm platforms</li>
<li>Finally, we present a framework for the valuation of J&amp;T's China business, and offer a list of questions we would ask management as the company prepares for its IPO</li>
</ul>


In this insight we look at the development of J&amp;T's China business over the past few years, including J&amp;T's purchase of Best Inc's express operation in late 2021
We also compare J&amp;T's Chinese operation to five listed Chinese express companies in terms of scale, market position, financial performance, and relationships with e-comm platforms
Finally, we present a framework for the valuation of J&amp;T's China business, and offer a list of questions we would ask management as the company prepares for its IPO


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | 'Haven't We Met Somewhere Before?'

Hong Kong

KLN Logistics Group Limited is a global third-party logistics (3PL) provider offering integrated logistics and international freight forwarding services, including air, ocean, road, and rail freight, as well as e-commerce and supply chain solutions. The company serves various industries such as fashion, electronics, food & beverage, and pharmaceuticals. Founded in 1981, KLN Logistics Group is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.

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KLN Logistics (636 HK)

J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

The PHIP filing favours the bull case due to a return to organic growth across the main geographies, maiden profitability, stabilization in...

Arun George

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 4: Read-Through from KEX (Thailand) And Kerry Logistics H1 Results

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T’s updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

We're pulling this note out of the archives in light of J&T’s updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this week....

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | 'Haven't We Met Somewhere Before?'

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this...

Tracking Traffic

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