Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a></strong> (KLN) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1229/2023122900152.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a></strong> (KET).</li>
<li>As <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a></strong> holds a controlling 51.5% stake in KLN after the 2021 partial Offer, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie. That triggers an unconditional MTO.  </li>
<li>The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. The key regulatory approval is Thai SFC. That won't be an issue. </li>
</ul>


Last week Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) (KET).
As S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a controlling 51.5% stake in KLN after the 2021 partial Offer, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie. That triggers an unconditional MTO.  
The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. The key regulatory approval is Thai SFC. That won't be an issue. 


Kerry Express (KEX TB): Kerry Logistics (636 HK)'s In-Specie Triggers MTO

Equity Capital Markets

New World Development / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a></strong> nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS Holdings (659 HK)</a></strong> moves gradually forward. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



New World Development (17 HK) nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of NWS Holdings (659 HK) moves gradually forward. 
Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Hung Kai Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a></strong> released its interim results, shares declined 12.7% intra-day this past Monday, touching a 14-year low, before closing down 9.5%. </li>
<li>The same day, the Kwok family increased their stake in the company, purchasing ~2.2mn shares for ~HK$175mn.  </li>
<li>SHKP is currently trading a trailing P/B of 0.36x versus its five-year average of 0.54x, and the five-year average preceding Covid of 0.68x.</li>
</ul>


After Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) released its interim results, shares declined 12.7% intra-day this past Monday, touching a 14-year low, before closing down 9.5%. 
The same day, the Kwok family increased their stake in the company, purchasing ~2.2mn shares for ~HK$175mn.  
SHKP is currently trading a trailing P/B of 0.36x versus its five-year average of 0.54x, and the five-year average preceding Covid of 0.68x.


Sun Hung Kai (16 HK): The Kwoks Step In To Stem The Tide

<ul>
<li>China's swift and sudden abolishment of its Covid rules triggered across-the-board outperformance for Hong Kong stocks. The HSI is up ~13% since early December 2022. </li>
<li>A strong rebound of inbound tourism and the resumption of normalised travel between Hong Kong and the mainland should underpin the city's recovery.</li>
<li>The retail sector, notably the high street shop segment, should lead this post-Covid recovery in terms of both rents and prices. </li>
</ul>


China's swift and sudden abolishment of its Covid rules triggered across-the-board outperformance for Hong Kong stocks. The HSI is up ~13% since early December 2022. 
A strong rebound of inbound tourism and the resumption of normalised travel between Hong Kong and the mainland should underpin the city's recovery.
The retail sector, notably the high street shop segment, should lead this post-Covid recovery in terms of both rents and prices. 


Hong Kong Property: Retail Reopening Front-Runners

<div>
<div>
<p>Back on the 9 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (KLN) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0210/2021021000043.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> ("SFH").  SFH intended to acquire 931.21mn shares or 51.8% of shares outstanding, of KLN. The Offer price of  HK$18.80/share was a 19.83% discount to last close. KLN's shares also gained 25% prior to the suspension.</p>
<p>Below is a timeline of events that subsequently unfolded:</p>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<h3>Data in the Date</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">30-Mar-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">The controlling shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (KLN), including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a>, plus shares held by executive directors, comprise 63.1% of shares out. These shareholders have given an irrevocable to tender 575.545mn shares or 32% of shares out. Those irrevocables have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0330/2021033003206.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fulfilled</a> - this forms part of the pre-conditions.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">9-Apr-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">KLN <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0409/2021040901991.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the antitrust approval has been received from the State Administration for Market Regulation with respect to the Partial Offer.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">26-May-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">At an SGM, KLN shareholders overwhelmingly <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0526/2021052600981.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">7-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">The free float waiver has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0607/2021060701185.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a> from the HKEx.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">15-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">
<p>Approval by the shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0615/2021061501141.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">obtained</a></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">29-Jun-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">CFIUS approval <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0629/2021062900794.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">20-Jul-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">KLN <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0720/2021072000823.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> approval by the Independent Shareholders in respect of the Special Deal Agreements and the Framework Services Agreement had been obtained.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">2-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">KLN <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0802/2021080201361.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> NDRC and MoC approval has been received as to the partial offer.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">9-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Exactly on the Long Stop date, KLN <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0809/2021080901151.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> all of the pre-cons have been met - or waived (the Thai waiver in particular)  - and that the Composite Document is expected to be dispatched, on or before, the 16 August. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">12-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Composite Doc <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0811/2021081101136.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">17-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">The Record Date for the Special Dividend is expected to be the 1 <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0817/2021081701332.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September</a>. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid on or about Friday, 17 September 2021</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139.871px;">18-Aug-21</td>
<td style="width: 606.141px;">Irrevocables <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0818/2021081800881.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a>. Thai MGO waiver received,. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 746.012px;"><em>Source: HKEx announcements</em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<p>All appears to be going to plan.  The first close is the 2 September. </p>
<p>Then KLN announced on the 24 August a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0824/2021082401338.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delay</a> in the record date for the Special Dividend. KLN estimates:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>that the Record Date for the Special Dividend will be on or around Wednesday, 15 September 2021, instead of Wednesday, 1 September 2021 as disclosed in the Special Dividend Announcement. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid on or about Tuesday, 5 October 2021, instead of Friday, 17 September 2021.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With the Partial expected to close on the 2 September, questions have been asked whether those shareholders who have already tendered - or those investors who tender before the 2 September - whether they are still eligible for the special dividend?</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
<p>Plus updated <em><strong>Ye Olde Arb Grids</strong></em>. </p>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
</div>



Back on the 9 February, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  S.F. Holding (002352 CH) ("SFH").  SFH intended to acquire 931.21mn shares or 51.8% of shares outstanding, of KLN. The Offer price of  HK$18.80/share was a 19.83% discount to last close. KLN's shares also gained 25% prior to the suspension.
Below is a timeline of events that subsequently unfolded:





Date


Data in the Date



30-Mar-21
The controlling shareholders of Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN), including Kerry Properties (683 HK), plus shares held by executive directors, comprise 63.1% of shares out. These shareholders have given an irrevocable to tender 575.545mn shares or 32% of shares out. Those irrevocables have now been fulfilled - this forms part of the pre-conditions.


9-Apr-21
KLN announced that the antitrust approval has been received from the State Administration for Market Regulation with respect to the Partial Offer.


26-May-21
At an SGM, KLN shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.


7-Jun-21
The free float waiver has been received from the HKEx.


15-Jun-21

Approval by the shareholders of Kerry Properties (683 HK) obtained



29-Jun-21
CFIUS approval received



20-Jul-21
KLN announced approval by the Independent Shareholders in respect of the Special Deal Agreements and the Framework Services Agreement had been obtained.


2-Aug-21
KLN announced NDRC and MoC approval has been received as to the partial offer.


9-Aug-21
Exactly on the Long Stop date, KLN announced all of the pre-cons have been met - or waived (the Thai waiver in particular)  - and that the Composite Document is expected to be dispatched, on or before, the 16 August. 


12-Aug-21
Composite Doc dispatched



17-Aug-21
The Record Date for the Special Dividend is expected to be the 1 September. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid on or about Friday, 17 September 2021


18-Aug-21
Irrevocables received. Thai MGO waiver received,. 


Source: HKEx announcements





All appears to be going to plan.  The first close is the 2 September. 
Then KLN announced on the 24 August a delay in the record date for the Special Dividend. KLN estimates:

that the Record Date for the Special Dividend will be on or around Wednesday, 15 September 2021, instead of Wednesday, 1 September 2021 as disclosed in the Special Dividend Announcement. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid on or about Tuesday, 5 October 2021, instead of Friday, 17 September 2021.

With the Partial expected to close on the 2 September, questions have been asked whether those shareholders who have already tendered - or those investors who tender before the 2 September - whether they are still eligible for the special dividend?


More below the fold. 
Plus updated Ye Olde Arb Grids. 





Kerry Logistics (636 HK): Technicalities As Partial Draws To An End

Hong Kong

Kerry Properties is a world-class property development and investment company with significant investments in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the Asia Pacific region. The company develops and manages premium residential, commercial, and mixed-use properties, and also owns and operates hotels. Kerry Properties is headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong, and was founded in 1978.

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Kerry Properties (683 HK)

Kerry Express (KEX TB): Kerry Logistics (636 HK)'s In-Specie Triggers MTO

KET is trading 2% through term. Get involved if this were to dip below the net terms. Or buy outright is you have a firm conviction on the back...

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StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

If the Chengs aren't buying here, it doesn't exactly compel investors to do otherwise. The arb for NWS Holdings looks like a better bet here after...

David Blennerhassett

Sun Hung Kai (16 HK): The Kwoks Step In To Stem The Tide

I can't think of a compelling reason to get exposure in SHKP here. I can think of a number of compelling reasons not to.

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Property: Retail Reopening Front-Runners

HKL is cheap at a forward P/B of 0.32x. Both Link and Wharf will benefit from the HK/China border fully opening. But Wharf REIC's two premier...

David Blennerhassett

Kerry Logistics (636 HK): Technicalities As Partial Draws To An End

Assuming that the Irrevocable Agreement signors intend to tender only what they put in their Irrevocable Agreement, then owning the stock around...

David Blennerhassett

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