Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Clings to Positive gains - barely; Powell Testimony in Focus;  Commodities Weak on dissappointing China growth target; GS upgrade Apple to BUY; Telsa cuts prices (again)</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136; Progress on Japan-S.Korea Relation normalization; Public increasingly supports nuclear restarts;  Toyota rolls out BEV in China; Win for Rakuten in "Open Ran"</li>
<li>NUGGET. AI Development platforms are being rolled around across Japan's manufacturing sector to improvement R&amp;D efficiency. This has the potential to drive significant value, especially in Japan Big Pharma</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Clings to Positive gains - barely; Powell Testimony in Focus;  Commodities Weak on dissappointing China growth target; GS upgrade Apple to BUY; Telsa cuts prices (again)
JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136; Progress on Japan-S.Korea Relation normalization; Public increasingly supports nuclear restarts;  Toyota rolls out BEV in China; Win for Rakuten in "Open Ran"
NUGGET. AI Development platforms are being rolled around across Japan's manufacturing sector to improvement R&amp;D efficiency. This has the potential to drive significant value, especially in Japan Big Pharma


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds On..barely; Powell Testimony in Focus; NUGGET: AI & Japan Big Pharma

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. </li>
<li>Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.</li>
<li>How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a> are likely to boom.</li>
</ul>


The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. 
Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.
How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) are likely to boom.


Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Today after the close, $3bn Japanese condiment maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kewpie-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10681:1" rel="noopener">Kewpie Corp (2809 JP)</a> - famed for its mayonnaise in a slightly-floppy squeeze-bottle - announced that it would buy cancel 8.5 million shares or 5.67% of shares out. </p><p>The share cancellation takes place on 13 September 2021. </p><p>That causes an index effect, and given the time of year, I would expect minimal earnings-related updates between now and then. </p><p>More below the fold. </p>

Today after the close, $3bn Japanese condiment maker Kewpie Corp (2809 JP) - famed for its mayonnaise in a slightly-floppy squeeze-bottle - announced that it would buy cancel 8.5 million shares or 5.67% of shares out. The share cancellation takes place on 13 September 2021. That causes an index effect, and given the time of year, I would expect minimal earnings-related updates between now and then. More below the fold. 

Kewpie (2809 JP) Share Cancellation Index Event

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 5th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/987/original/image_46394735821617656683433.png?1617656684" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198987"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> had a third-successive positive quarter, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kewpie-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10681:1" rel="noopener">Kewpie (2809 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adastria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11895:1" rel="noopener">Adastria (2685 JP)</a> had double-digit year-on-year sales declines, and drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/create-sd-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12945:1" rel="noopener">Create SD (3148 JP)</a> saw profits decline.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/989/original/image_51513331531617657092402.png?1617657093" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198989"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/990/original/image_56921939741617657150504.png?1617657151" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198990"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGER CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL • </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/991/original/image_89489650351617657220460.png?1617657221" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198991"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Adastria offset its weak results with a bullish FY22 forecast, as did restaurant chain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichibanya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2914:1" rel="noopener">Ichibanya (7630 JP)</a>. Shimamura's interim forecast was much more bullish than for the full year. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:209:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Steel (5406 JP)</a> revised up further into the black, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12002:1" rel="noopener">JINS (3046 JP)</a> revised its interim and full-year sales and operating income slightly lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/992/original/image_65197346461617657668077.png?1617657668" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198992"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/993/original/image_33740867171617657704461.png?1617657705" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198993"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 5th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227 JP) had a third-successive positive quarter, while Kewpie (2809 JP) and Adastria (2685 JP) had double-digit year-on-year sales declines, and drugstore Create SD (3148 JP) saw profits decline.• LARGER CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Adastria offset its weak results with a bullish FY22 forecast, as did restaurant chain Ichibanya (7630 JP). Shimamura's interim forecast was much more bullish than for the full year. Kobe Steel (5406 JP) revised up further into the black, while JINS (3046 JP) revised its interim and full-year sales and operating income slightly lower.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​05 - Shimamura & JINS

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/974/original/File%202020-10-01%2015%2010%2035.jpeg?1601583635" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162974"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: NHK</div><p><strong>FAILOVER</strong><strong>FAILURE</strong> - The failure of the Fail Over system in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange (8697 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a> 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-</p><blockquote>
<p> Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   </p>
<h3>Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan</h3>
<p><strong>October 1st, 2020</strong></p>
</blockquote><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagaileben-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3165:1" rel="noopener">Nagaileben (7447 JP)</a> and waste management company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/977/original/2020-10-02_06-08-02.png?1601586653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162977"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/976/original/2020-10-02_06-10-05.png?1601586638" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162976"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>12 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +3.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> 0.5ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points</p></li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. </strong></p></div>

Source: NHKFAILOVERFAILURE - The failure of the Fail Over system in Japan Exchange (8697 JP) / Fujitsu (6702 JP) 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-
 Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   
Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan
October 1st, 2020
• BEST &amp; WORST •The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer Nagaileben (7447 JP) and waste management company Daiseki (9793 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS12 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.5ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%
7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points
Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

Japan

Kewpie Corporation mainly produces and sells mayonnaise, salad dressing, egg products, and health foods.  The Company also purchases and sells jam, sauce, canned and frozen foods.  Kewpie sells canned foods under Aohata brand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kewpie Corp (2809 JP)

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds On..barely; Powell Testimony in Focus; NUGGET: AI & Japan Big Pharma

SPX holds on to gains ahead of Powell testimony; Progress on Japan-S.Korea Relation normalization; Nuclear restart support increases; Toyota...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/05 - Shimamura & JINS

RESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

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Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds On..barely; Powell Testimony in Focus; NUGGET: AI & Japan Big Pharma

SPX holds on to gains ahead of Powell testimony; Progress on Japan-S.Korea Relation normalization; Nuclear restart support increases; Toyota...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

Kewpie (2809 JP) Share Cancellation Index Event

Kewpie (2809) famed for its mayonnaise will cancel its shares next month. That will lead to a TOPIX downweight at end October. Given shareholder...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​05 - Shimamura & JINS

RESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/05 - Shimamura & JINS

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie