Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.</li>
<li>The company's engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.</li>
<li>Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.</li>
</ul>


Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
The company's engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.


Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Keyence reported record 2Q Sales and OP, thoroughly beating street expectations. The company recorded high double-digit growth in all regions - even in Europe.  </li>
<li>Pricing power is on display 10-35% price hikes to shore up the dip in GPM to 81.3%, depressed on higher raw material costs.  Sets up for future earnings growth. </li>
<li>The share price has underperformed the TOPIX -26%YTD. Valuations at the bottom of the recent range. We expect a share price recovery and are bullish. </li>
</ul>


Keyence reported record 2Q Sales and OP, thoroughly beating street expectations. The company recorded high double-digit growth in all regions - even in Europe.  
Pricing power is on display 10-35% price hikes to shore up the dip in GPM to 81.3%, depressed on higher raw material costs.  Sets up for future earnings growth. 
The share price has underperformed the TOPIX -26%YTD. Valuations at the bottom of the recent range. We expect a share price recovery and are bullish. 


Keyence(6861 JP) | The Rise of the Phoenix – A Company like No Other

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Japan

KEYENCE CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells sensors and measuring instruments used for factory automation (FA) and high technology hobby products. The Company's products include fiber optic sensors, photoelectric sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLC), laser scan micrometers, bar code readers, and radio-controlled model cars.

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Keyence Corp (6861 JP)

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Large cash & securities holdings make it a beneficiary of rising Japanese interest rates. Unique business model and advance of automation support...

Scott Foster

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Keyence(6861 JP) | The Rise of the Phoenix – A Company like No Other

2Q record earnings confirms why Keyence will continue to grow for years to come. The price hikes sets the company up for strong earnings growth. ...

Mark Chadwick

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Markets closely watching BoJ's next move on June 17 with historical data showing limited impact from anticipated rate decisions, but rare...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

Large cash & securities holdings make it a beneficiary of rising Japanese interest rates. Unique business model and advance of automation support...

Scott Foster

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Keyence(6861 JP) | The Rise of the Phoenix – A Company like No Other

2Q record earnings confirms why Keyence will continue to grow for years to come. The price hikes sets the company up for strong earnings growth. ...

Mark Chadwick

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

​Markets closely watching BoJ's next move on June 17 with historical data showing limited impact from anticipated rate decisions, but rare...

Gaudenz Schneider

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

Markets closely watching BoJ's next move on June 17 with historical data showing limited impact from anticipated rate decisions, but rare...