Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Business: Designs and integrates intralogistics, cleanroom, airport, and automotive automation systems.</li>
<li>Expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with recurring service growth.</li>
<li>Earnings projected to grow mid-teens CAGR to FY27E, with multiples compressing from ~25× P/E / 15× EV/EBITDA to ~20× / 12×, justifying a structural premium.</li>
</ul>


Business: Designs and integrates intralogistics, cleanroom, airport, and automotive automation systems.
Expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with recurring service growth.
Earnings projected to grow mid-teens CAGR to FY27E, with multiples compressing from ~25× P/E / 15× EV/EBITDA to ~20× / 12×, justifying a structural premium.


Daifuku (6383 JP): Global Automation Leader with Structural AI Tailwinds

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 22nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,656m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Sanrio, Disco, Tokyo Electron, IHI, Fujikura, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Sanrio.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 22nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,656m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Sanrio, Disco, Tokyo Electron, IHI, Fujikura, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Sanrio.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 22nd): SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Sanrio, Disco

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Japan

KEYENCE CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells sensors and measuring instruments used for factory automation (FA) and high technology hobby products. The Company's products include fiber optic sensors, photoelectric sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLC), laser scan micrometers, bar code readers, and radio-controlled model cars.

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Keyence Corp (6861 JP)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

Daifuku (6383 JP): Global Automation Leader with Structural AI Tailwinds

Company expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with projected earnings growth and justified structural premium.

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 22nd): SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Sanrio, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Sanrio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

Daifuku (6383 JP): Global Automation Leader with Structural AI Tailwinds

​Company expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with projected earnings growth and justified structural premium.

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 22nd): SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Sanrio, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Sanrio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Company expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with projected earnings growth and justified structural premium.