HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Abrocitinib/Upadacitinib/Dupilumab will all exert great pressure on the future commercialization space of CM310 in China. If Keymed doesn't run head-to-head trials with dupilumab, CM310’s internationalization outlook would be gloomy.</li>
<li>Compared with IL-4 that has been almost occupied by dupilumab, Keymed has more opportunity on TSLP. Even with Keymed-AstraZeneca deal, our valuation of CMG901 is cautious based on our analysis. </li>
<li>The current valuation of Keymed is not cheap. The next big catalyst to share price is a new license-out deal with MNC on CM310/CM326, marking the beginning of qualitative changes. </li>
</ul>


Abrocitinib/Upadacitinib/Dupilumab will all exert great pressure on the future commercialization space of CM310 in China. If Keymed doesn't run head-to-head trials with dupilumab, CM310’s internationalization outlook would be gloomy.
Compared with IL-4 that has been almost occupied by dupilumab, Keymed has more opportunity on TSLP. Even with Keymed-AstraZeneca deal, our valuation of CMG901 is cautious based on our analysis. 
The current valuation of Keymed is not cheap. The next big catalyst to share price is a new license-out deal with MNC on CM310/CM326, marking the beginning of qualitative changes. 


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - Looking Forward to the Next Leap in Valuation

<ul>
<li>The “horror story” of Keymed yesterday alerted us. The delay in submission of marketing application for CM310 should have been known by Keymed long ago, indicating shortcomings in information disclosure/expectation management.</li>
<li>The earliest time CM310 would be launched is 2024. This means that CM310 may miss out next year's NRDL negotiations and be in a passive position in competition with dupilumab.</li>
<li>We still maintain our view on Keymed's valuation for the time being. If there is “black swan event”, we may need to adjust valuation as the competitive landscape could change.</li>
</ul>


The “horror story” of Keymed yesterday alerted us. The delay in submission of marketing application for CM310 should have been known by Keymed long ago, indicating shortcomings in information disclosure/expectation management.
The earliest time CM310 would be launched is 2024. This means that CM310 may miss out next year's NRDL negotiations and be in a passive position in competition with dupilumab.
We still maintain our view on Keymed's valuation for the time being. If there is “black swan event”, we may need to adjust valuation as the competitive landscape could change.


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - Behind the Plunge in Share Price and the Outlook

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A document titled "<em>Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain</em>" attracted widespread attention, which is significantly different from past policies. </li>
<li>Restrictions on payment end and deteriorating investment and financing situations will be improved, marking a new starting point for China’s innovative drug business. We have reasons to start being optimistic.</li>
<li>If approved and implemented, it would be a significant reversal of the previous expectation and investment logic of innovative drugs. So, investors should not overlook the importance of this document.</li>
</ul>


A document titled "Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain" attracted widespread attention, which is significantly different from past policies. 
Restrictions on payment end and deteriorating investment and financing situations will be improved, marking a new starting point for China’s innovative drug business. We have reasons to start being optimistic.
If approved and implemented, it would be a significant reversal of the previous expectation and investment logic of innovative drugs. So, investors should not overlook the importance of this document.


Important New Policy for China’s Innovative Drugs – The Game Rule Is About to Change Radically

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


Hong Kong

Keymed Biosciences Inc. operates a biotechnology company. The Company focus on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies. Keymed Biosciences provides services in China.

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)