HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to doctors’ poor diagnosis/limited affordability, commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market could be much lower than expected. Internationalization is inevitable, but Keymed is lack of cash for MRCT.</li>
<li>For CM310 and CM326, their total sales in China could be less than RMB2 billion. For CMG901, it is hard to say if Claudin 18.2 (ADC) would finally be successful.</li>
<li>As long as Keymed can successfully develop either CM310 or CM326 (key premise), even temporarily only commercializing in the domestic market, the Company has the potential to double in valuation.</li>
</ul>


Due to doctors’ poor diagnosis/limited affordability, commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market could be much lower than expected. Internationalization is inevitable, but Keymed is lack of cash for MRCT.
For CM310 and CM326, their total sales in China could be less than RMB2 billion. For CMG901, it is hard to say if Claudin 18.2 (ADC) would finally be successful.
As long as Keymed can successfully develop either CM310 or CM326 (key premise), even temporarily only commercializing in the domestic market, the Company has the potential to double in valuation.


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The Potential for Doubling Valuation and the Corresponding Risks

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

<ul>
<li>Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.</li>
<li>Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.</li>
<li>Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.
Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.
Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.


Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

Orient Overseas (International) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 29 inclusions and 12 deletions for the HSCI at the March rebalance. 26 of the inclusions will be added to Connect while all deletes will leave Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the Stock Connect deletions have a lot of mainland holdings and there could unwinding of some of the positions ahead of becoming sell-only on the link.</li>
<li>Orient Overseas International, United Energy, Cloud Village and Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited could also move higher over the next couple of weeks before the stocks enter Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 29 inclusions and 12 deletions for the HSCI at the March rebalance. 26 of the inclusions will be added to Connect while all deletes will leave Stock Connect.
Some of the Stock Connect deletions have a lot of mainland holdings and there could unwinding of some of the positions ahead of becoming sell-only on the link.
Orient Overseas International, United Energy, Cloud Village and Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited could also move higher over the next couple of weeks before the stocks enter Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 12 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)