Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), BYD (1211 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), BYD (1211 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (June): Inflows Accelerated, Xiaomi/Tencent Profit Taking Continued

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Cloudbreak Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since diagnosis/treatment rate of pterygium is low, it’s uncertain how many patients will be willing to pay high price for CBT-001. CBT-009 may lose first-mover advantage in front of Ryjunea.</li>
<li>Due to pressure on cash flow, the development progress of CBT-006 and CBT-004 could be slower-than-expected. CBT-004’s sales may be squeezed due to the off-label use of anti VEGF drugs. </li>
<li>Valuation could be lower than peers considering that CLOUDBREAK has out-licensed commercialization rights of core product and has to face fierce competition and uncertain market demand after the product launch.</li>
</ul>


Since diagnosis/treatment rate of pterygium is low, it’s uncertain how many patients will be willing to pay high price for CBT-001. CBT-009 may lose first-mover advantage in front of Ryjunea.
Due to pressure on cash flow, the development progress of CBT-006 and CBT-004 could be slower-than-expected. CBT-004’s sales may be squeezed due to the off-label use of anti VEGF drugs. 
Valuation could be lower than peers considering that CLOUDBREAK has out-licensed commercialization rights of core product and has to face fierce competition and uncertain market demand after the product launch.


Pre-IPO Cloudbreak Pharma (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a> launched its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intellignt-controls-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12940:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH)</a> has been pre-marketing.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) - Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

<ul>
<li>The GLP-1 market has officially transitioned from a duopoly to a state where Tirzepatide is eating away at Semaglutide's market share, which should be a highly valued advance signal.</li>
<li>WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88/share is expansive if based on 2025 forecast.Obviously, WuXi Bio hopes to leverage the positive market sentiment to complete the placement at high share price</li>
<li>Keymed plans to raise about HK$854million through a top-up placement. However, reasonable valuation for Keymed is RMB5-10 billion. In other words, the Placing Price of HK$45.48 per Share is expensive.</li>
</ul>


The GLP-1 market has officially transitioned from a duopoly to a state where Tirzepatide is eating away at Semaglutide's market share, which should be a highly valued advance signal.
WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88/share is expansive if based on 2025 forecast.Obviously, WuXi Bio hopes to leverage the positive market sentiment to complete the placement at high share price
Keymed plans to raise about HK$854million through a top-up placement. However, reasonable valuation for Keymed is RMB5-10 billion. In other words, the Placing Price of HK$45.48 per Share is expensive.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

Hong Kong

Keymed Biosciences Inc. operates a biotechnology company. The Company focus on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies. Keymed Biosciences provides services in China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (June): Inflows Accelerated, Xiaomi/Tencent Profit Taking Continued

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Cloudbreak Pharma (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Low diagnosis/treatment rate for pterygium may impact willingness to pay for CBT-001. Commercialization outlook is highly uncertain due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) - Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

GLP-1 market is approaching ceiling. WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88 is expensive based on our forecast. Keymed's reasonable valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

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Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (June): Inflows Accelerated, Xiaomi/Tencent Profit Taking Continued

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Cloudbreak Pharma (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Low diagnosis/treatment rate for pterygium may impact willingness to pay for CBT-001. Commercialization outlook is highly uncertain due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) - Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

GLP-1 market is approaching ceiling. WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88 is expensive based on our forecast. Keymed's reasonable valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Low diagnosis/treatment rate for pterygium may impact willingness to pay for CBT-001. Commercialization outlook is highly uncertain due to...