Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.</li>
<li>Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.</li>
<li>Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.
Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.
Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.


Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS' US$8.2bn Allocation

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We discuss the importance of Hyundai Motor generating nearly 11.5 trillion won in operating profit in 2023, which is likely to be the highest among all Korean companies. </li>
<li>Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp combined are expected to generate operating profit of 20.7 trillion won in 2023, representing 57% of total operating profit of the top 10 Korean companies.</li>
<li>In 2023, Hyundai Motor plans a full-scale world-wide roll-out of its EV Ioniq 6. Furthermore, it set a dividend payout ratio at 25% or higher.</li>
</ul>


We discuss the importance of Hyundai Motor generating nearly 11.5 trillion won in operating profit in 2023, which is likely to be the highest among all Korean companies. 
Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp combined are expected to generate operating profit of 20.7 trillion won in 2023, representing 57% of total operating profit of the top 10 Korean companies.
In 2023, Hyundai Motor plans a full-scale world-wide roll-out of its EV Ioniq 6. Furthermore, it set a dividend payout ratio at 25% or higher.


Hyundai Motor: Highest Operating Profit Among All Korean Companies in 2023

<ul>
<li>The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. </li>
<li>The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. </li>
<li>In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.</li>
</ul>


The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. 
The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. 
In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.


Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD803.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,160mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, KEPCO.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated holding was USD803.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,160mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, KEPCO.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 28th): SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER

South Korea

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

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Kia Corp (000270 KS)

Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS' US$8.2bn Allocation

The NPS and KRW as said to be discussing the creation of the Korea Value-Up Index and the NPS could benchmark KRW 11tn to the index. We look at...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Hyundai Motor: Highest Operating Profit Among All Korean Companies in 2023

In this insight, we discuss the importance of Hyundai Motor generating nearly 11.5 trillion won in operating profit in 2023, which is likely to be...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 28th): SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS, Samsung Electronics, NAVER, HD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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