Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Hyundai Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

<h2>Offering overview</h2><p>A very unusual rights offering was recently announced in the Korean market.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Hyundai E&amp;C announced this unusual capital increase, saying it would issue 2 million new preferred stocks.</strong></p></div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overview"}'>Overview</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Issuer"}'><strong>Shares to be issued</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co. Preference Shares"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'><strong>Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co. Preference Shares</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'><strong>Ticker</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"000725"}' data-sheets-formula='="000725"'><strong>000725</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Target"}'>Target</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders"}'>A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Transferability"}'>Transferability</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Renounceable"}'>Renounceable</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Volume"}'><strong>Volume</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>2,000,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Preliminary price"}'>Preliminary price</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":114500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}'>₩114,500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Preliminary value"}'>Preliminary value</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":229000000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]*R[-1]C[0]">₩229,000,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Oversubscription privilege"}'>Oversubscription privilege</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Banker"}'>Banker</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KIS &amp; Hyundai Motor Securities"}'>KIS &amp; Hyundai Motor Securities</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Although the capital increase ratio resulting from these 2 million shares remains at 1.79%, the offering volume is 20 times the size of the currently issued preferred stock.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allocation"}'>Capital increase rate</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ordinary"}'>Ordinary - before rights offer</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":111355765}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance("000720", "shares")'>111,355,765</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pref"}'><strong>Pref - before rights offer</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":98856}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-12]C[0], "shares")'><strong>98,856</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offer volume"}'><strong>Offer volume</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>2,000,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'><strong>Capital increase rate</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0179}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>1.79%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total shares after rights offer"}'>Total shares after rights offer</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":113454621}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[1]C[0]+R[2]C[0]">113,454,621</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Ordinary"}'>- Ordinary</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":111355765}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]">111,355,765</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Pref"}'>- Pref</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2098856}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]+R[-5]C[0]">2,098,856</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>And what's even more shocking is that the discount rate applied when calculating the final offering price is a whopping 45%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>For local rights offerings, a discount rate of 15-20% is usually applied. In contrast, this rights offering applies a discount rate of more than double the usual level.</strong></p></div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="400">
<col width="400">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round"}'>1st round</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"RP × (1 - 45%) / [1 + (1.79% × 45%)]"}' data-sheets-formula='="RP × (1 - "&amp;(R[11]C[0]*100&amp;"%")&amp;") / [1 + ("&amp;(R[12]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;" × "&amp;(R[11]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")]"))'>RP × (1 - 45%) / [1 + (1.79% × 45%)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]"}'>Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44438}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[26]C[0]">2021. 08. 30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ex-rights base price"}'>Ex-rights base price</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"[RP + (1st × 1.79%)] / (1 + 1.79%)"}' data-sheets-formula='="[RP + (1st × "&amp;R[9]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")] / (1 + "&amp;R[9]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")"'>[RP + (1st × 1.79%)] / (1 + 1.79%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Previous close"}'>Previous close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44440}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[24]C[0]">2021. 09. 01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2nd round"}'>2nd round</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"RP × (1 - 45%)"}' data-sheets-formula='="RP × (1 - "&amp;(R[5]C[0]*100&amp;"%")&amp;")"'>RP × (1 - 45%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]"}'>Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44487}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[25]C[0]">2021. 10. 18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final"}'>Final</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Min (1st, 2nd)"}'>Min (1st, 2nd)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44487}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[23]C[0]">2021. 10. 18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount rate"}'><strong>Discount rate</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.45}'><strong>45.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'>Capital increase rate</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0179}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]">1.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>In this rights offering, 20% will be allocated to the ESOP, and the remaining 80% will be allocated to shareholders.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Of course, not only shareholders who own preferred stocks but also shareholders who own common stocks are given the same purchase rights. So the allocation ratio per share becomes 0.0143556.</strong></p></div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allocation"}'>Allocation</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Per-share allocation"}'><strong>Per-share allocation</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.014355618328288066}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000000","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[7]C[0]/(R[-3]C[0]+R[-2]C[0])"><strong>0.0143556</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"ESOP allocation"}'>ESOP allocation</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":400000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>400,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - %"}'>- %</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-7]C[0]">20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stockholder allocation"}'><strong>Stockholder allocation</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1600000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>1,600,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - %"}'><strong>- %</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-9]C[0]"><strong>80.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The schedule is as follows. The first-round price is confirmed on Aug. 30, and this becomes the ceiling of the offering price. And since September 1 is the ex-date, the stock must be held by August 31 to be granted the subscription right. After that, the subscription rights will be traded for 5 trading days from October 1 to 8, and the final price will be confirmed on October 18. The new stock listing date is November 5.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Timetable"}'>Timetable</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"BOD meeting"}'>BOD meeting</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44400}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 07. 23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Preliminary pricing"}'><strong>Preliminary pricing</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44438}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 08. 30</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ex-rights date"}'><strong>Ex-rights date</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44440}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 09. 01</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Record date"}'>Record date</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44441}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade beginning"}'><strong>Subscription rights trade beginning</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44470}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 01</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade ending"}'><strong>Subscription rights trade ending</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44477}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 10. 08</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final pricing"}'>Final pricing</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44487}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 10. 18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stockholder subscription"}'>Stockholder subscription</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44490}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 10. 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44495}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'>2021. 10. 26</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'><strong>Listing</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44505}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. mm. dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 11. 05</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Offering overviewA very unusual rights offering was recently announced in the Korean market.Hyundai E&amp;C announced this unusual capital increase, saying it would issue 2 million new preferred stocks.





Overview

Shares to be issued
Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co. Preference Shares


Ticker
000725


Target
A public offering of forfeited shares after offering to stockholders


Transferability
Renounceable


Volume
2,000,000


Preliminary price
₩114,500


Preliminary value
₩229,000,000,000


Oversubscription privilege
20.00%


Banker
KIS &amp; Hyundai Motor Securities

Source: DART

Although the capital increase ratio resulting from these 2 million shares remains at 1.79%, the offering volume is 20 times the size of the currently issued preferred stock.





Capital increase rate

Ordinary - before rights offer
111,355,765


Pref - before rights offer
98,856


Offer volume
2,000,000


Capital increase rate
1.79%


Total shares after rights offer
113,454,621


- Ordinary
111,355,765


- Pref
2,098,856

Source: DART

And what's even more shocking is that the discount rate applied when calculating the final offering price is a whopping 45%.For local rights offerings, a discount rate of 15-20% is usually applied. In contrast, this rights offering applies a discount rate of more than double the usual level.





Pricing

1st round
RP × (1 - 45%) / [1 + (1.79% × 45%)]


- Reference price (RP)
Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]


- Reference date
2021. 08. 30


Ex-rights base price
[RP + (1st × 1.79%)] / (1 + 1.79%)


- Reference price (RP)
Previous close


- Reference date
2021. 09. 01


2nd round
RP × (1 - 45%)


- Reference price (RP)
Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]


- Reference date
2021. 10. 18


Final
Min (1st, 2nd)


- Reference date
2021. 10. 18


Discount rate
45.00%


Capital increase rate
1.79%

Source: DART

In this rights offering, 20% will be allocated to the ESOP, and the remaining 80% will be allocated to shareholders.Of course, not only shareholders who own preferred stocks but also shareholders who own common stocks are given the same purchase rights. So the allocation ratio per share becomes 0.0143556.





Allocation

Per-share allocation
0.0143556


ESOP allocation
400,000


- %
20.00%


Stockholder allocation
1,600,000


- %
80.00%

Source: DART

The schedule is as follows. The first-round price is confirmed on Aug. 30, and this becomes the ceiling of the offering price. And since September 1 is the ex-date, the stock must be held by August 31 to be granted the subscription right. After that, the subscription rights will be traded for 5 trading days from October 1 to 8, and the final price will be confirmed on October 18. The new stock listing date is November 5.





Timetable

BOD meeting
2021. 07. 23


Preliminary pricing
2021. 08. 30


Ex-rights date
2021. 09. 01


Record date
2021. 09. 02


Subscription rights trade beginning
2021. 10. 01


Subscription rights trade ending
2021. 10. 08


Final pricing
2021. 10. 18


Stockholder subscription
2021. 10. 21


Payment
2021. 10. 26


Listing
2021. 11. 05

Source: DART



Hyundai E&C's Unusual 1P Offering with a Shocking 45% Discount

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

Maruti Suzuki India / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In this Insight, we present commentary from our interactions with one of the largest dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> , Store Manager of Royal Enfield from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> , Dealership owners of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and an Electric Vehicle (EV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greaves-cotton-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11664:1" rel="noopener">Greaves Cotton (GRV IN)</a>. We also share anecdotal commentary that we have gathered about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> .</p>
<div>
<div>
<h3>About India Channel Insight </h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.</p>
</div>

In this Insight, we present commentary from our interactions with one of the largest dealers of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) , Store Manager of Royal Enfield from Eicher Motors (EIM IN) , Dealership owners of Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and an Electric Vehicle (EV) of Greaves Cotton (GRV IN). We also share anecdotal commentary that we have gathered about Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) .


About India Channel Insight 



Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.


India Channel Insight | Maruti, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Eicher, Ola Electric

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>A battery developer<a href="https://www.electrive.com/2021/07/14/ses-to-hit-the-stock-market-via-merger-with-ivanhoe-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SES</a> has announced it will merge with the SPAC Ivanhoe Capital Acquisition on the US stock exchange. After this merger with SPAC Ivanhoe, the company will have an estimated value of $3.6 billion. In this transaction, SES will receive $476 million. </p>

A battery developer SES has announced it will merge with the SPAC Ivanhoe Capital Acquisition on the US stock exchange. After this merger with SPAC Ivanhoe, the company will have an estimated value of $3.6 billion. In this transaction, SES will receive $476 million. 

The Merger Between SES & SPAC Ivanhoe - Impact on SK Holdings

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian energy plays <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24141:1" rel="noopener">Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI)</a>, Brazilian securities exchange <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">1</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Information Technology</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">2</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Energy</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">4</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">Posco (005490 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Materials</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">5</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">6</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Financials</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Energy</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">8</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24141:1" rel="noopener">Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Energy</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">9</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Financials</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.7344px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 263.203px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.312px;">Financials</td>
<td style="width: 147.938px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.8125px;">41</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left; width: 746px;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian energy plays Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) and Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI), Brazilian securities exchange B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ), and China Construction Bank H (939 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

SK Hynix (000660 KS) 
Information Technology
Korea (South)
3


2

China Mobile (941 HK) 
Communication
China
9


3

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) 
Energy
China
1


4

Posco (005490 KS) 
Materials
Korea (South)
21


5

Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) 
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
4


6

Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) 
Financials
China
5


7

Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) 
Energy
Russian Federation
14


8

Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI) 
Energy
Russian Federation
32


9

B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) 
Financials
Brazil
70


10

China Construction Bank H (939 HK) 
Financials
China
41

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight"><p>According to the KRX, it plans to launch new indices which would include the top 10 stocks in KOSPI including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>. The name of this index is expected to be called <strong>KOSPI 200 Top 10.</strong> There will also be 2x levered indices based off the KOSPI 200 Top 10 index. These indices will be catered for those investors that are interested in the highest market cap companies within KOSPI 200.</p></div><p>Currently, the top 10 constitutents of the KOSPI 200 Top 10 Index will be expected to be composed of the following:</p><ol>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mobis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6089:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)</a> </li>
</ol>

According to the KRX, it plans to launch new indices which would include the top 10 stocks in KOSPI including Samsung Electronics (005930 KS). The name of this index is expected to be called KOSPI 200 Top 10. There will also be 2x levered indices based off the KOSPI 200 Top 10 index. These indices will be catered for those investors that are interested in the highest market cap companies within KOSPI 200.Currently, the top 10 constitutents of the KOSPI 200 Top 10 Index will be expected to be composed of the following:

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 

SK Hynix (000660 KS) 

LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) 

Naver Corp (035420 KS) 

Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) 

Samsung SDI (006400 KS) 

Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) 

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) 

Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) 

Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) 


KRX Plans to Launch a New Index Called 'KOSPI 200 Top 10'

South Korea

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

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