Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK.</li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the banking sector, supported by ongoing balance-sheet management through both loan expansion and capital management, which should support medium-term ROE and the potential for high dividend payouts.</li><li>We retain KBANK (Outperform, TP Bt250) as our Top Pick, underpinned by strong loan growth and non-NII prospects, along with the potential for a special dividend from the remaining share-buyback budget.</li></ul>

Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK.We maintain our Overweight rating on the banking sector, supported by ongoing balance-sheet management through both loan expansion and capital management, which should support medium-term ROE and the potential for high dividend payouts.We retain KBANK (Outperform, TP Bt250) as our Top Pick, underpinned by strong loan growth and non-NII prospects, along with the potential for a special dividend from the remaining share-buyback budget.

Banking: Loan Growth Continues, but the Recovery Remains Concentrated - Overweight

<ul><li>Commercial banks responded quickly (within two days) after the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, in which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps to 1.50%, with a full 100% pass-through, unlike the previous round, where the pass-through averaged only 30% for MLR and 20% for MRR.</li><li>We revised down 2025-27E earnings for medium- to large-sized banks (BBL, KBANK, SCB, TTB) by 3-11%, based on the assumption of a 50% pass-through, which would lower NIM by 7-28 bps.</li><li>Meanwhile, small banks (TISCO, KKP) would benefit, with NIM rising 5-7 bps due to stable loan portfolios and low CASA ratios.</li></ul>

Commercial banks responded quickly (within two days) after the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, in which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps to 1.50%, with a full 100% pass-through, unlike the previous round, where the pass-through averaged only 30% for MLR and 20% for MRR.We revised down 2025-27E earnings for medium- to large-sized banks (BBL, KBANK, SCB, TTB) by 3-11%, based on the assumption of a 50% pass-through, which would lower NIM by 7-28 bps.Meanwhile, small banks (TISCO, KKP) would benefit, with NIM rising 5-7 bps due to stable loan portfolios and low CASA ratios.

Earnings Forecast Revisions to Reflect the MPC's Latest Rate Cut

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

TMBThanachart Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ing-groep-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21120:1" rel="noopener">ING Groep NV (INGA NA)</a> is looking to sell a stake of around 5.6% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tmbthanachart-bank-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8090:1" rel="noopener">TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB)</a> to raise up to US$500m via a secondary selldown.</li>
<li>TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) is one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, formed through the 2019 merger of TMB Bank and Thanachart Bank, with a focus on retail, SME and corporate banking.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



ING Groep NV (INGA NA) is looking to sell a stake of around 5.6% in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB) to raise up to US$500m via a secondary selldown.
TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) is one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, formed through the 2019 merger of TMB Bank and Thanachart Bank, with a focus on retail, SME and corporate banking.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: TMBThanachart Bank Placement - Healthy Fundamentals, But Supply Overhang Remains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>However, from a fundamental perspective, the current index level has declined excessively, bringing the MRP into the buying zone.</li><li>In view of the above, this presents a good opportunity for buybacks, with the recovery target at 1,471 points (based on the average MRP of 4.37%).</li><li>The banking and insurance sectors see the highest potential to outperform.</li></ul>

However, from a fundamental perspective, the current index level has declined excessively, bringing the MRP into the buying zone.In view of the above, this presents a good opportunity for buybacks, with the recovery target at 1,471 points (based on the average MRP of 4.37%).The banking and insurance sectors see the highest potential to outperform.

<ul><li>We recommend selling FORTH (return: -1.80%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings; we suggest replacing it with KKP.</li><li>KKP is a beneficiary of the interest rate uptrend.</li><li>The firm should benefit from the potential expansion of its net interest margin (NIM) and solid loan growth.</li></ul>

We recommend selling FORTH (return: -1.80%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings; we suggest replacing it with KKP.KKP is a beneficiary of the interest rate uptrend.The firm should benefit from the potential expansion of its net interest margin (NIM) and solid loan growth.

Thailand

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited is a full-service commercial bank based in Thailand, offering a comprehensive range of financial and investment services. The company provides deposits, various loan products including auto, personal, and home loans, as well as investment products, debit cards, and digital banking services. It also offers business banking, capital market services, and debt restructuring. The bank was founded in January 1971 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP-R TB)

Banking: Loan Growth Continues, but the Recovery Remains Concentrated - Overweight

Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK. We maintain our Overweight rating on...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Forecast Revisions to Reflect the MPC's Latest Rate Cut

Commercial banks responded quickly (within two days) after the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, in which the policy rate was cut by...

Krungthai XSpring

Aequitas: TMBThanachart Bank Placement - Healthy Fundamentals, But Supply Overhang Remains

ING is looking to sell a stake of around 5.6% in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB) to raise up to US$500m. In this note we talk about the deal dynamics...

Akshat Shah

Weekly Strategy - View on the SET

However, from a fundamental perspective, the current index level has declined excessively, bringing the MRP into the buying zone. In view of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Big Cap Tactical Picks

We recommend selling FORTH (return: -1.80%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings; we suggest replacing it with KKP. KKP is a...

Krungthai XSpring

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