Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our low growth estimates, while Exports grew 21%, better than expected and aided by FX tailwinds.</li><li> Margins were on average in line with our estimates, contracting YoY and with EBITDA margin of 25.1% in line with long-term target range of 25-27%.</li><li>At the gross margin level, results were underperforming amid a 410bps YoY contraction, yet EBIT and EBITDA margins contracted less and were slightly above our cautious estimates.</li></ul>

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our low growth estimates, while Exports grew 21%, better than expected and aided by FX tailwinds. Margins were on average in line with our estimates, contracting YoY and with EBITDA margin of 25.1% in line with long-term target range of 25-27%.At the gross margin level, results were underperforming amid a 410bps YoY contraction, yet EBIT and EBITDA margins contracted less and were slightly above our cautious estimates.

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A - Actinver Research

<ul><li>Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.</li><li>Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY.</li><li> Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.</li></ul>

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY. Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates

<ul><li>Amid a more cautious view on FX we are lowering our estimates ahead of results.</li><li>With c.60% of its raw materials dollarized —and fairly minimal sales exposure to the same currency—, Kimberly-Clark de México is in our view one of the most impacted companies amid recent FX turmoil.</li><li>We thus lower our 4Q24 estimates onwards at the margin level, while slightly lowering our sales estimates.</li></ul>

Amid a more cautious view on FX we are lowering our estimates ahead of results.With c.60% of its raw materials dollarized —and fairly minimal sales exposure to the same currency—, Kimberly-Clark de México is in our view one of the most impacted companies amid recent FX turmoil.We thus lower our 4Q24 estimates onwards at the margin level, while slightly lowering our sales estimates.

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 Preview

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

Mexico

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. manufactures, markets and distributes consumer, industrial, and institutional hygiene products. The Company produces feminine care items, diapers, toilet paper and facial tissues.

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Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A (KIMBERA MM)

Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A - Actinver Research

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew only 0.3% YoY, below our estimates, with both Consumer and Away from Home declining (1% and 4%, respectively), vs our...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 results close to our estimates

Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates. Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 Preview

Amid a more cautious view on FX we are lowering our estimates ahead of results. With c.60% of its raw materials dollarized —and fairly minimal...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

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