ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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Indonesia's leading diagnostics company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> just released a strong set of FY2020 numbers, confirming the company's ability to adapt and thrive in the face of the pandemic. It looks set to resume its expansion and trades on very attractive valuations.
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> saw its net profit increase by  +7.4% to IDR1,873.38bn, with revenues from each customer segment increasing and making a significant contribution.
Individual and referral customers from doctors made up 61.2% of revenues, whilst third-party referrals and corporate clients made up 38.8% of total revenues.
In 2020, the total number of tests reached 13.99m from 3.06m visits, with the demand for esoteric testing increasing by +191.5% YoY in 2020 to 1.6 million tests. Revenue from esoteric tests increased by +131.8% in 2020 to IDR700.3bn.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to provide assistance to the government in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic by providing tests for COVID-19 using the rapid test method, EIA antibody serology test, and PCR COVID-19,  and performing more than 1m COVID-19 tests in Indonesia in 2020.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to expand the capacity for PCR COVID-19 examinations to more than 2,000 tests/day by adding the Cobas 6800 automatic testing tool.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to add to its digital capabilities to aims to provide convenience for customers, without them having to visit the Prodia Lab through teleconsulting and the Prodia App. 
The company plans to expand its clinical labs, hospital labs, POC outlets, and add one specialty clinic in 2021, after a pause in 2020. Apart from growing its network of outlets, the company plans to upgrade its existing clinical labs to provide a greater array of tests.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> valuations are very attractive versus healthcare peers in Indonesia but also Indian diagnostic peers, which trade on significantly higher multiples.


Indonesia's leading diagnostics company, Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) just released a strong set of FY2020 numbers, confirming the company's ability to adapt and thrive in the face of the pandemic. It looks set to resume its expansion and trades on very attractive valuations.

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) saw its net profit increase by  +7.4% to IDR1,873.38bn, with revenues from each customer segment increasing and making a significant contribution.
Individual and referral customers from doctors made up 61.2% of revenues, whilst third-party referrals and corporate clients made up 38.8% of total revenues.
In 2020, the total number of tests reached 13.99m from 3.06m visits, with the demand for esoteric testing increasing by +191.5% YoY in 2020 to 1.6 million tests. Revenue from esoteric tests increased by +131.8% in 2020 to IDR700.3bn.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to provide assistance to the government in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic by providing tests for COVID-19 using the rapid test method, EIA antibody serology test, and PCR COVID-19,  and performing more than 1m COVID-19 tests in Indonesia in 2020.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to expand the capacity for PCR COVID-19 examinations to more than 2,000 tests/day by adding the Cobas 6800 automatic testing tool.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to add to its digital capabilities to aims to provide convenience for customers, without them having to visit the Prodia Lab through teleconsulting and the Prodia App. 
The company plans to expand its clinical labs, hospital labs, POC outlets, and add one specialty clinic in 2021, after a pause in 2020. Apart from growing its network of outlets, the company plans to upgrade its existing clinical labs to provide a greater array of tests.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) valuations are very attractive versus healthcare peers in Indonesia but also Indian diagnostic peers, which trade on significantly higher multiples.

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Diagnosed as Resilient

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pp-london-sumatra-indones-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9039:1" rel="noopener">Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ)</a>, while stocks that could be deleted from the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/summarecon-agung-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5693:1" rel="noopener">Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>.Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ), while stocks that could be deleted from the index are Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ), Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ).Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a> share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-sril-undervalued-with-more-products-and-b2c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43490" rel="noopener">Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C</a> .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perusahaan-gas-negara-perser" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1584:1" rel="noopener">Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ)</a> , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability.

Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ) share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ) , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability. 

Kimia Farma (KAEF): National Service Is Charity

Expand when your peers retreat. That is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> management has done in this COVID-19 period. It has launched more products from daily wear to COVID-19 related products such as non-medical masks (B2C) and PPE (B2B). It has won a mandate to become a PPE supplier to chain hospitals such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> .
Among LQ45 constituents, Sritex has the lowest PER while other COVID-19 related stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> trade at 27x and 50x PER respectively. Compared to other PPE and gloves manufacturers in Malaysia such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> , Sritex is trading at a deep discount.

Expand when your peers retreat. That is what Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) management has done in this COVID-19 period. It has launched more products from daily wear to COVID-19 related products such as non-medical masks (B2C) and PPE (B2B). It has won a mandate to become a PPE supplier to chain hospitals such as Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) and Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) .
Among LQ45 constituents, Sritex has the lowest PER while other COVID-19 related stocks such as Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) and Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) trade at 27x and 50x PER respectively. Compared to other PPE and gloves manufacturers in Malaysia such as Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) and Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) , Sritex is trading at a deep discount. 

Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C

For a while, the global audience has expressed their disbelief that Indonesia has 0 results for Covid-19 infection but recently, prices for ginger, turmeric, and curcuma have gone up - indicating that Indonesians are seeking a home remedy to combat Covid-19. 
Sido Muncul's top product, Tolak Angin (contains ginger), is a market leader in Indonesia. Despite trading at a premium compared to its closest peer, TSPC, it is still trading at a discount to its hospital operator peers and on par to other pharmaceutical companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a> .

For a while, the global audience has expressed their disbelief that Indonesia has 0 results for Covid-19 infection but recently, prices for ginger, turmeric, and curcuma have gone up - indicating that Indonesians are seeking a home remedy to combat Covid-19. 
Sido Muncul's top product, Tolak Angin (contains ginger), is a market leader in Indonesia. Despite trading at a premium compared to its closest peer, TSPC, it is still trading at a discount to its hospital operator peers and on par to other pharmaceutical companies such as Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) and Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ) . 

SIDO Muncul (SIDO): Remedy for Covid19 Scare

Indonesia

PT Kimia Farma Tbk is a leading Indonesian pharmaceutical producer and distributor. The company manufactures, commercializes, and distributes a wide range of pharmaceutical products including finished drugs, herbal medicines, and cosmetics. It also provides integrated health services, encompassing manufacturing, research and development, marketing, distribution, retail, clinical laboratories, and clinics. Kimia Farma is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1971 as PT Kimia Farma (Persero) through the nationalization of Dutch East Indies pharmaceutical firms.

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Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ)

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Diagnosed as Resilient

Prodia remains one of our top healthcare picks in Indonesia, showing resilience during the pandemic, just releasing a strong set of numbers, and...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

The LQ45 rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and the announcement will be made in the next few days. There could...

Brian Freitas

Kimia Farma (KAEF): National Service Is Charity

•Get a mandate to distribute mask throughout Indonesia - Estimated revenues and margin, How much compared to the last year’s earnings •Share Price...

Henry Soediarko

Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C

Expand when your peers retreat. That is what Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)

Henry Soediarko

SIDO Muncul (SIDO): Remedy for Covid19 Scare

For a while, the global audience has expressed their disbelief that Indonesia has 0 results for Covid-19 infection but recently, prices for ginger,...

Henry Soediarko

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