Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan's listed power electrical contractors reported June-quarter results consistent with the early stages of a multi-year infrastructure upcycle, driven by grid modernisation, data centre build-out, and offshore wind development.</li>
<li>Profit increases were largely attributed to improved construction efficiency, thorough cost management, and an increase in net sales for segments such as indoor electrical and air-conditioning work.</li>
<li>The decision to maintain full year guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to persistently high raw material prices, a continued labor shortage, and potential supply chain disruptions</li>
</ul>


Japan's listed power electrical contractors reported June-quarter results consistent with the early stages of a multi-year infrastructure upcycle, driven by grid modernisation, data centre build-out, and offshore wind development.
Profit increases were largely attributed to improved construction efficiency, thorough cost management, and an increase in net sales for segments such as indoor electrical and air-conditioning work.
The decision to maintain full year guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to persistently high raw material prices, a continued labor shortage, and potential supply chain disruptions


Kinden (1944 JP) | Live Wire Among Electrical Engineering Players

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big gains in the US semi and DC related should translate into continued upside in Japan despite some BIG gains yesterday.</li>
<li>Wire and cable plays are all surging, yet the smaller side of the sector underperforms. Nidec good risk/reward into numbers.</li>
<li>HAMR rollout helping Seagate higher should also help memory/HDD component plays.</li>
</ul>


Big gains in the US semi and DC related should translate into continued upside in Japan despite some BIG gains yesterday.
Wire and cable plays are all surging, yet the smaller side of the sector underperforms. Nidec good risk/reward into numbers.
HAMR rollout helping Seagate higher should also help memory/HDD component plays.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Binge Buying Should Continue in Japan

<ul>
<li>Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.</li>
<li>Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.</li>
<li>News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.</li>
</ul>


Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.
Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.
News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

Japan

KINDEN CORPORATION designs, constructs, and maintains communication, electrical, and environmental facilities nationwide and overseas.  The Company's services include optical fiber network, cable television, power distribution line, power generation, air-conditioning, and water supply and sewage facilities.

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Kinden Corp (1944 JP)

Kinden (1944 JP) | Live Wire Among Electrical Engineering Players

Japan's power electrical contractors see profit growth in June-quarter results, driven by infrastructure upcycle and increased sales in key segments.

Mark Chadwick

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: AI Binge Buying Should Continue in Japan

US gains in semiconductor and DC related should drive continued upside in Japan. Surges in wire and cable plays. HAMR rollout should boost memory...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Kinden (1944 JP) | Live Wire Among Electrical Engineering Players

​Japan's power electrical contractors see profit growth in June-quarter results, driven by infrastructure upcycle and increased sales in key segments.

Mark Chadwick

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: AI Binge Buying Should Continue in Japan

US gains in semiconductor and DC related should drive continued upside in Japan. Surges in wire and cable plays. HAMR rollout should boost memory...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

​Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan's power electrical contractors see profit growth in June-quarter results, driven by infrastructure upcycle and increased sales in key segments.

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.