Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Third straight week in which HSI recorded a weekly absolute price change greater than 3%.</li>
<li>Breadth improved sharply, though single stock option volumes remained subdued. Strong North American market son Friday point to higher open for stocks on Monday. </li>
<li>A heavy slate of earnings reporters awaits in the week ahead.</li>
</ul>


Third straight week in which HSI recorded a weekly absolute price change greater than 3%.
Breadth improved sharply, though single stock option volumes remained subdued. Strong North American market son Friday point to higher open for stocks on Monday. 
A heavy slate of earnings reporters awaits in the week ahead.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

<ul>
<li>Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.</li>
<li>Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.</li>
<li>We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.</li>
</ul>


Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (1703609D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. </li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



JST Group (1703609D CH) is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider. 
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


JST Group Pre-IPO: Premium to Peers but Potentially a Domestic “Shopify”

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kingdee International Software Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Kingdee International Software Group (268 HK)

<ul><li>Kingdee reported 1H25 results: revenue was RMB3.19bn, up 11.2% YoY (1H24: 11.9%; 2H24: 8.8%), inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus; net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB97.7mn (1H24: loss of RMB217.9mn), shy of Bloomberg consensus loss of RMB73mn due to slightly higher-than-expected operating expenses.</li><li>Management shared key progresses and development targets regarding its three key strategic focuses: 1) subscription: cloud subscription revenue grew 22.1% YoY in 1H25 and accounted for 52.8% of total revenue; 2) AI: AI contract value exceeded RMB150mn in 1H25, and management guided for AI-related revenue to contribute &gt;30% of total revenue in 2030; 3) globalization: management expects international business revenue to contribute 5-10% of total revenue in 3-5 years.</li><li>We remain positive that Kingdee is one of the key beneficiaries in the AI application era in our coverage universe, and believe progress on AI monetization and recovery in revenue growth, along with recovery in macro and increased digitalization demand could serve as key drivers for its stock price. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Kingdee reported 1H25 results: revenue was RMB3.19bn, up 11.2% YoY (1H24: 11.9%; 2H24: 8.8%), inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus; net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB97.7mn (1H24: loss of RMB217.9mn), shy of Bloomberg consensus loss of RMB73mn due to slightly higher-than-expected operating expenses.Management shared key progresses and development targets regarding its three key strategic focuses: 1) subscription: cloud subscription revenue grew 22.1% YoY in 1H25 and accounted for 52.8% of total revenue; 2) AI: AI contract value exceeded RMB150mn in 1H25, and management guided for AI-related revenue to contribute &gt;30% of total revenue in 2030; 3) globalization: management expects international business revenue to contribute 5-10% of total revenue in 3-5 years.We remain positive that Kingdee is one of the key beneficiaries in the AI application era in our coverage universe, and believe progress on AI monetization and recovery in revenue growth, along with recovery in macro and increased digitalization demand could serve as key drivers for its stock price. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kingdee (268 HK) - Recovery in Revenue Growth in Line with Expectation, with More Updates on AI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

China

Kingdee International Software Group is a leading provider of cloud-based enterprise management SaaS solutions and enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. The company offers solutions for financial management, human resources, supply chain, and manufacturing, often powered by AI. It was established in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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Kingdee International Software Group (268 HK)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

Hong Kong equities extended their rebound with stronger breadth and cooler volatility, setting the stage for a busy earnings week. Strong NA...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...

John Ley

JST Group Pre-IPO: Premium to Peers but Potentially a Domestic “Shopify”

JST Group (JST) is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s...

Nicholas Tan

Kingdee (268 HK) - Recovery in Revenue Growth in Line with Expectation, with More Updates on AI

Our 2025-2027E revenue forecast remains unchanged, and our TP is fine tuned to HK$19.2 (was HK$19.3), based on 8.4x 2025E EV/sales (was 8.5x),...

CMB International

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

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Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 20–24): Subdued Volumes Ahead of Busy Earnings Schedule

Hong Kong equities extended their rebound with stronger breadth and cooler volatility, setting the stage for a busy earnings week. Strong NA...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

​Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...

John Ley

JST Group Pre-IPO: Premium to Peers but Potentially a Domestic “Shopify”

JST Group (JST) is looking to raise up to US$270m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s...

Nicholas Tan

Kingdee (268 HK) - Recovery in Revenue Growth in Line with Expectation, with More Updates on AI

Our 2025-2027E revenue forecast remains unchanged, and our TP is fine tuned to HK$19.2 (was HK$19.3), based on 8.4x 2025E EV/sales (was 8.5x),...

CMB International

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...