Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.</li>
<li>We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.</li>
<li>We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.</li>
</ul>


We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.


Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> are possible candidates.</li>
<li>Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.</li>
</ul>


The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.


China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>China's DeepSeek is catalyzing growth opportunities in the Software as a Service (SaaS)/ Internet as a Service (IaaS) sectors by integrating AI solutions for platforms, service providers and software applications.</li>
<li>DeepSeek has democratized AI and brought forward significant demand for AI services for enterprises and consumers.  US hyperscalers will struggle to monetize their AI services as inexpensive models will proliferate.</li>
<li>Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingdee-international-sftwr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37:1" rel="noopener">Kingdee International Software (268 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinasoft-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:407:1" rel="noopener">Chinasoft International (354 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vobile-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29711:1" rel="noopener">Vobile Group (3738 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inspur-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7523:1" rel="noopener">Inspur International (596 HK)</a> will benefit.</li>
</ul>


China's DeepSeek is catalyzing growth opportunities in the Software as a Service (SaaS)/ Internet as a Service (IaaS) sectors by integrating AI solutions for platforms, service providers and software applications.
DeepSeek has democratized AI and brought forward significant demand for AI services for enterprises and consumers.  US hyperscalers will struggle to monetize their AI services as inexpensive models will proliferate.
Companies like Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) , Kingdee International Software (268 HK) , Chinasoft International (354 HK) , Vobile Group (3738 HK) , and Inspur International (596 HK) will benefit.


DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group / Technical Analysis

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-cloud-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36647:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK)</a> is benefiting from the AI rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shares to fall.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.

Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.

BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

China

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. provides comprehensive cloud services, including IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS, to businesses and organizations primarily in China. Its offerings encompass cloud computing, storage, and delivery solutions, with a focus on various verticals such as video, e-commerce, financial services, and healthcare. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Kingsoft Cloud (3896 HK)

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

DeepSeek's breakthrough AI model has created huge demand for AI services at a more affordable price from enterprises and customers.SaaS and IaaS...

David Mudd

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

​Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

DeepSeek Rally Creates More Winners in SaaS/IaaS Sectors

DeepSeek's breakthrough AI model has created huge demand for AI services at a more affordable price from enterprises and customers.SaaS and IaaS...

David Mudd

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...