Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.</li>
<li>
 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.</li>
<li>
Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash</li>
</ul>



 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.

 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.

Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash


Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Kinross Gold Corporation reported solid operational and financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, continuing the strong momentum established in the first quarter.</li><li>The company produced 492,000 gold equivalent ounces in Q2, with key contributions from Tasiast and Paracatu mines, together accounting for over half of the production.</li><li>The continued disciplined cost management strategy led to a cost of sales per ounce of $1,336 and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,821 per ounce, consistent with internal guidance and reflecting efficiency initiatives across the portfolio.</li></ul>

Kinross Gold Corporation reported solid operational and financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, continuing the strong momentum established in the first quarter.The company produced 492,000 gold equivalent ounces in Q2, with key contributions from Tasiast and Paracatu mines, together accounting for over half of the production.The continued disciplined cost management strategy led to a cost of sales per ounce of $1,336 and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,821 per ounce, consistent with internal guidance and reflecting efficiency initiatives across the portfolio.

Kinross Gold Corporation’s $727 Million Cash Surge: Can The Momentum Last?

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

Canada

Kinross Gold Corporation is involved in the exploration, development, and production of gold in countries located around the world.  The Company currently has operations in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mauritania, Ghana and Russia.

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Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

Kinross Gold Corporation’s $727 Million Cash Surge: Can The Momentum Last?

Kinross Gold Corporation reported solid operational and financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, continuing the strong momentum...

Baptista Research

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

Kinross Gold Corporation’s $727 Million Cash Surge: Can The Momentum Last?

Kinross Gold Corporation reported solid operational and financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, continuing the strong momentum...

Baptista Research

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas