Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Capital Markets

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<p>For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration. There are exceptions - lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is often the case for secondary listings.</p>
<p>There are other quirks such as specific lock-ups with respect to share incentive schemes, such as in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-hepalink-pharmaceutical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29142:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen HepaLink Pharmaceutical (H) (9989 HK)</a>, which have their own unique lock-up period - although in this case, the % of shares out (0.31%) affected  is largely immaterial. </p>
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<p>According to <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1007-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Main Board Rule 10.07(1)</a> (or <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1316a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GEM rule 13.16A(1)</a>), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, they must adhere to a 6-month lock-up from the date of listing.</p>
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<p>For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:</p>
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<blockquote>
<p>Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months from and including the Listing Date (the “Lock-up Period”), dispose of any of the Offer Shares they have purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreements, save for certain limited circumstances ... <br>Hepalink's <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0624/2020062400097.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Offering Doc</a> (page 403)</p>
</blockquote>
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<div>
<p>Every week in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/46538/Last%20Week%20in%20Event%20SPACE:%20Japan%20Post,%20JD.com,%20Toyota,%20NTT,%20Jardines,%20Indices/Exec.%20Orders,%20Tianneng.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/vhr6W" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Event SPACE</a> wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This monthly insight looks at companies that have been listed for around six months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially creating an overhang which could depress prices.</p>
<p>I've also constructed a chart highlighting the performance of IPOs leading up to their lock-up, and compared this to the HSI index. The results are interesting. Spoiler - recent IPOs underperform. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is also attached at the bottom of this insight.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration. There are exceptions - lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is often the case for secondary listings.
There are other quirks such as specific lock-ups with respect to share incentive schemes, such as in Shenzhen HepaLink Pharmaceutical (H) (9989 HK), which have their own unique lock-up period - although in this case, the % of shares out (0.31%) affected  is largely immaterial. 


According to Main Board Rule 10.07(1) (or GEM rule 13.16A(1)), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, they must adhere to a 6-month lock-up from the date of listing.


For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:



Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months from and including the Listing Date (the “Lock-up Period”), dispose of any of the Offer Shares they have purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreements, save for certain limited circumstances ...  Hepalink's Global Offering Doc (page 403)



Every week in my Event SPACE wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. 


Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related. 


This monthly insight looks at companies that have been listed for around six months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially creating an overhang which could depress prices.
I've also constructed a chart highlighting the performance of IPOs leading up to their lock-up, and compared this to the HSI index. The results are interesting. Spoiler - recent IPOs underperform. 


A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is also attached at the bottom of this insight.
More below the fold.


Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries (December 2020 Edition)

Event-Driven

<p>The role of lock-ups in IPOs is, as one journal <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1262724?seq=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">put it</a>, a "<em>commitment device to alleviate moral hazard problems</em>".</p>
<p>Lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is the case for secondary listings for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, amongst others. For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1007-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Main Board Rule 10.07(1)</a> (or <a href="https://en-rules.hkex.com.hk/rulebook/1316a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GEM rule 13.16A(1)</a>), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, shall not (apart from any offer of shares for sale discussed in the listing document):</p>
<ol>
<li>dispose of shares (nor enter into agreements) in a period commencing on the date by reference to which disclosure of the shareholding of the controlling shareholder is made in the listing document and ending on the date which is 6 months from the date of listing (the “<strong>First Six-month Period</strong>”); and</li>
<li>dispose of shares in the period of 6 months commencing on the date on which the First Six-month Period expires, if immediately following such disposal that person or group of persons would cease to be a controlling shareholder (the “<strong>Second Six-month Period</strong>”).</li>
</ol>
<p>An example of such wording can be found in Yadong's Group (1795 HK)'s (the most recent Main Board listing) "<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1117/9515120/2020111700040.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Share Offer - Announcement of allotment results</em></a>".</p>
<p>For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months following the Listing Date, dispose of any of the Offer Shares it has purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreement, save for certain limited circumstances ...</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Every week in my Event SPACE wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. </p>
<p>Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are <em>likely</em> lock-up related. </p>
<p>This insight looks at companies that have been listed for nearly six months or 12 months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially depressing prices and creating an overhang.</p>
<p><em>A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is attached at the bottom of this insight.</em></p>

The role of lock-ups in IPOs is, as one journal put it, a "commitment device to alleviate moral hazard problems".
Lock-ups can be entered into and negotiated with underwriters, as is the case for secondary listings for NetEase (9999 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), amongst others. For primary listings in Hong Kong, there are standard rules as to the lock-up duration.
According to Main Board Rule 10.07(1) (or GEM rule 13.16A(1)), if a person/group of persons is/are listed as the controlling shareholder(s) of the issuer's listing application, shall not (apart from any offer of shares for sale discussed in the listing document):

dispose of shares (nor enter into agreements) in a period commencing on the date by reference to which disclosure of the shareholding of the controlling shareholder is made in the listing document and ending on the date which is 6 months from the date of listing (the “First Six-month Period”); and
dispose of shares in the period of 6 months commencing on the date on which the First Six-month Period expires, if immediately following such disposal that person or group of persons would cease to be a controlling shareholder (the “Second Six-month Period”).

An example of such wording can be found in Yadong's Group (1795 HK)'s (the most recent Main Board listing) "Share Offer - Announcement of allotment results".
For cornerstone investors, the following is often stated in the share offer document:

Each of the Cornerstone Investors has agreed that it will not, whether directly or indirectly, at any time during the period of six months following the Listing Date, dispose of any of the Offer Shares it has purchased pursuant to the relevant Cornerstone Investment Agreement, save for certain limited circumstances ...

Every week in my Event SPACE wrap, I flag large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves that are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. 
Large movement(s) concerning recently listed companies are likely lock-up related. 
This insight looks at companies that have been listed for nearly six months or 12 months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell, potentially depressing prices and creating an overhang.
A summary of Main Board listings in 2020 is attached at the bottom of this insight.

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Everest Medicines / Equity Capital Markets

<p>The valuation of pre-revenue biotechnology companies is, at best, an imprecise exercise. The traditional valuation tools (DCF, peer company comparisons, M&amp;A valuations) still apply, but require some modifications to reflect the unique circumstances. One tool is to consider the company's valuation in the context of the "step-up" from its last funding round to the pre-money valuation for the IPO. This Insight analyzes this data for pre-revenue biotechnology companies that have listed under the HKEX's "Biotech Chapter" and how investors can use this data to frame their analysis of these deals.</p>

The valuation of pre-revenue biotechnology companies is, at best, an imprecise exercise. The traditional valuation tools (DCF, peer company comparisons, M&amp;A valuations) still apply, but require some modifications to reflect the unique circumstances. One tool is to consider the company's valuation in the context of the "step-up" from its last funding round to the pre-money valuation for the IPO. This Insight analyzes this data for pre-revenue biotechnology companies that have listed under the HKEX's "Biotech Chapter" and how investors can use this data to frame their analysis of these deals.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2020 review will be made on 14 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 4 September.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.</p><p>From the upcoming review, Biotech companies listed under Chapter 18A of the HKEX Main Board listing rules will be eligible for inclusion in the HSCI. This is a huge change given that Biotech is a big investment theme in the current environment and mainland investors could come rushing into these names.</p><p>We see 22 possible inclusions in the HSCI (and consequently becoming eligible for Stock Connect) and 10 deletions (which will take the stocks off the eligible buy list and make them eligible for sell-only via Stock Connect).</p>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2020 review will be made on 14 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 4 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.From the upcoming review, Biotech companies listed under Chapter 18A of the HKEX Main Board listing rules will be eligible for inclusion in the HSCI. This is a huge change given that Biotech is a big investment theme in the current environment and mainland investors could come rushing into these names.We see 22 possible inclusions in the HSCI (and consequently becoming eligible for Stock Connect) and 10 deletions (which will take the stocks off the eligible buy list and make them eligible for sell-only via Stock Connect).

HSCI and Stock Connect - Biotech Stocks Now Eligible; Inclusion & Exclusion Possibilities

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>As we regularly analyse deal performance, it is time to look at how the HK IPO markets performed during the first half of 2020. In this note, we look at deal performance, categorized by sponsor banks, sector, retail book coverage. We highlight that deals sponsored by MS and GS stood out in 1H2020. Health Care listings dominated the league table with stellar performance in general but there are still under-performers to take note of. We look at the correlation between institutional coverage and IPO performance and note that cut-off institutional coverage for a profitable debut was 10x.</p>
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<h2>Our previous coverage on IPO analytics</h2>
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<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/5-key-charts-to-wrap-up-2015-hk-ipo-broker-sector-and-retail-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5 Key Charts to Wrap-Up 2015 HK IPO - Broker, Sector, and Retail Analytics</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/broker-sector-and-retail-analytics-of-2016-hk-ipo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Broker, Sector and Retail Analytics of 2016 HK IPOs</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2017-hk-ipos-analytics-good-deals-don-t-need-cornerstones" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2017 HK IPOs Analytics: Good Deals Don’t Need Cornerstones</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-analytics-cut-your-losses-and-let-your-profits-run-holds-true-for-ipos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO Analytics: Cut Your Losses and Let Your Profits Run, Holds True for IPOs</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-analytics-corporate-governance-alpha-generator-shortlist-of-bookrunners-to-avoid-keep-happy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO Analytics: Corporate Governance - Alpha Generator, Shortlist of Bookrunners to Avoid/Keep Happy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-ipo-analytics-1h2019-healthcare-and-consumer-discretionary-stand-out" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK IPO Analytics 1H2019: Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary Stand Out</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-regular-cornerstone-investors-and-track-record-follow-the-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hong Kong IPO Analytics - Regular Cornerstone Investors and Track Record</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aequitas-2019-ipos-and-placements-performance-things-we-got-right-wrong-and-things-we-plan-to-do" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aequitas 2019  IPOs and Placements Performance - Things we got right/wrong and things we plan to do</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2019-hong-kong-ipo-analytics-how-did-insti-and-retail-coverage-impact-deal-performance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2019 Hong Kong IPO Analytics: How Did Insti and Retail Coverage Impact Deal Performance</a></li>
</ul>
</div>

As we regularly analyse deal performance, it is time to look at how the HK IPO markets performed during the first half of 2020. In this note, we look at deal performance, categorized by sponsor banks, sector, retail book coverage. We highlight that deals sponsored by MS and GS stood out in 1H2020. Health Care listings dominated the league table with stellar performance in general but there are still under-performers to take note of. We look at the correlation between institutional coverage and IPO performance and note that cut-off institutional coverage for a profitable debut was 10x.


Our previous coverage on IPO analytics




5 Key Charts to Wrap-Up 2015 HK IPO - Broker, Sector, and Retail Analytics
Broker, Sector and Retail Analytics of 2016 HK IPOs
2017 HK IPOs Analytics: Good Deals Don’t Need Cornerstones
IPO Analytics: Cut Your Losses and Let Your Profits Run, Holds True for IPOs
IPO Analytics: Corporate Governance - Alpha Generator, Shortlist of Bookrunners to Avoid/Keep Happy
HK IPO Analytics 1H2019: Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary Stand Out
Hong Kong IPO Analytics - Regular Cornerstone Investors and Track Record
Aequitas 2019  IPOs and Placements Performance - Things we got right/wrong and things we plan to do
2019 Hong Kong IPO Analytics: How Did Insti and Retail Coverage Impact Deal Performance



HK IPO Analytics 1H2020: Highlight of Brokers' and Sectors' Performance, and Insti Book Color

China

Kintor Pharmaceutical Limited develops and markets drugs. The Company produces and sells androgen receptor antagonists, small molecule innovative drugs, and other products. Kintor Pharmaceutical markets its products primarily throughout China with limited overseas.

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Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK)

Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries (December 2020 Edition)

There exist the "moral hazard" around the expiry of lock-up periods. In 2020, IPO's have on average underperformed the HSI heading into the lock...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong IPOs: Lock-Up Expiries

A look at companies that have been listed for nearly six/12 months, as a guide to when insiders/controlling shareholders are permitted to sell,...

David Blennerhassett

What HKEX Biotech "Step-Ups" Can Tell Us

This Insight explains the concept of valuation "step-ups" for pre-revenue biotechnology companies listing on the HKEX and how to use this data to...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

HSCI and Stock Connect - Biotech Stocks Now Eligible; Inclusion & Exclusion Possibilities

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September...

Brian Freitas

HK IPO Analytics 1H2020: Highlight of Brokers' and Sectors' Performance, and Insti Book Color

As we regularly analyse deal performance, it is time to look at how the HK IPO markets performed during the first half of 2020. In this note, we...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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