Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels</li>
<li>ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..</li>
</ul>


2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.
Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels
ASML's Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..


Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>SK hynix' earnings call has been scheduled for 9:00 AM Korea, January 25, and Samsung's for 10:00 AM Korea, January 31.  What can investors expect to hear?</li>
<li>Three indicators have provided a preview of the two calls' directions: WSTS, Spot Pricing, and Micron's earnings call one month earlier.</li>
<li>The news for the market is positive, so expect to hear that these companies are making progress towards regaining profitability in semiconductors.</li>
</ul>


SK hynix' earnings call has been scheduled for 9:00 AM Korea, January 25, and Samsung's for 10:00 AM Korea, January 31.  What can investors expect to hear?
Three indicators have provided a preview of the two calls' directions: WSTS, Spot Pricing, and Micron's earnings call one month earlier.
The news for the market is positive, so expect to hear that these companies are making progress towards regaining profitability in semiconductors.


What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent results from Micron and SK Hynix did not only signal a recovery for DRAM but also for NAND flash memory. Micron expects improving NAND pricing through CY2025E.</li>
<li>Latest data shows a surge in NAND pricing -- 512GB NAND pricing is now up 116% from its 2023 lows.</li>
<li>Silicon Motion shares are down 5% over the last year. They have been weighed down by their terminated acquisition by MaxLinear, but now could offer a laggard play.</li>
</ul>


Recent results from Micron and SK Hynix did not only signal a recovery for DRAM but also for NAND flash memory. Micron expects improving NAND pricing through CY2025E.
Latest data shows a surge in NAND pricing -- 512GB NAND pricing is now up 116% from its 2023 lows.
Silicon Motion shares are down 5% over the last year. They have been weighed down by their terminated acquisition by MaxLinear, but now could offer a laggard play.


Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows

<ul>
<li>Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%</li>
<li>Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish</li>
<li>We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center</li>
</ul>


Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%
Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish
We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center


2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.</li>
<li>AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) </a>performed well.</li>
<li>According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.
AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.
According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook

2023 memory revenues -36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022. Forecasting >40% YoY growth in 2024,...

William Keating

What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls

How will the SK hynix earnings call on Jan 25 and the Samsung earnings call on Jan 31 play out? Certain indicators, spelled out in this insight,...

Jim Handy

Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows

Silicon Motion shares are down 5% over the last year. They have been weighed down by their terminated acquisition by MaxLinear, but now could offer...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

2024 semiconductor revenue growth will be muted despite forecasts predicting strong growth. This post explains why the year will not see another...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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