Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.</li>
<li>AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) </a>performed well.</li>
<li>According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.
AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.
According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us</li>
<li>Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side</li>
<li>Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!</li>
</ul>


9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!


WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


<ul>
<li>Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.</li>
<li>In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.</li>
<li>All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.</li>
</ul>


Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.


<ul>
<li>SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY</li>
<li>Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.</li>
<li>While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY
Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.
While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future


Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

Q323 DRAM revenue $13.2 billion, +19.25% QoQ, but -27% YoY. Q323 NAND revenues $9.3 billion, +4% QoQ but -31.7% YoY. All memory players remain loss...

William Keating

SK Hynix. DRAM To The Rescue

SK Hynix rQ323 revenues 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still -17% YoY. Net income -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement QoQ. While DRAM...

William Keating

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