Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tape will be weak to start, but may find dip buying given the bullish read from Micron which is helping send futs higher </li>
<li>Chinese ex-ASML engineers have reversed engineered a EUV lithography machine. Not awesome news for Lasertec and Jeol either. </li>
<li>China cooling on Japan has led to a big drop in tourist arrival growth rates. Expected - but still negative for duty free, hotels and rails etc. </li>
</ul>


Tape will be weak to start, but may find dip buying given the bullish read from Micron which is helping send futs higher 
Chinese ex-ASML engineers have reversed engineered a EUV lithography machine. Not awesome news for Lasertec and Jeol either. 
China cooling on Japan has led to a big drop in tourist arrival growth rates. Expected - but still negative for duty free, hotels and rails etc. 


Tech Hit on Financing Worries, but Micron Guidance Smashes Estimates

<ul>
<li>Micron numbers will be amazing, but will they be enough to justify the parabolic price actions? Likely, yes. </li>
<li>Intel hiring a Trump proxy a further sign its aligning itself with the Govt's designs for onshore chip production. </li>
<li>Estee lauder is surging but what about Shiseido and Kose? </li>
</ul>


Micron numbers will be amazing, but will they be enough to justify the parabolic price actions? Likely, yes. 
Intel hiring a Trump proxy a further sign its aligning itself with the Govt's designs for onshore chip production. 
Estee lauder is surging but what about Shiseido and Kose? 


Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, busy season remains on in full swing going into the year end.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were a few large deals across the region.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, busy season remains on in full swing going into the year end.
On the placements front, there were a few large deals across the region.


ECM Weekly (1 December 2025)-Kioxia, Airtel, Nippon, Toyoda Gosei, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Super Bank

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.</li>
<li>Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.</li>
<li>Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.</li>
</ul>


Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.
Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.
Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.


KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.

Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.


Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Tech Hit on Financing Worries, but Micron Guidance Smashes Estimates

Tape weak at first but may see dip buying; Chinese engineers reverse engineer lithography machine; China cooling on Japan affects tourist arrival...

Andrew Jackson

Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...

Andrew Jackson

ECM Weekly (1 December 2025)-Kioxia, Airtel, Nippon, Toyoda Gosei, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Super Bank

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation

Q2 earnings show growth in enterprise SSD demand and smartphone NAND volumes, with Q3 guidance pointing to record revenue and margin expansion...

Rahul Jain

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Toshiba unloaded a lot of Kioxia shares in Sep/Oct. Now Bain is selling US$2bn+ of stock and there could be more next year. The recent results...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech Hit on Financing Worries, but Micron Guidance Smashes Estimates

​Tape weak at first but may see dip buying; Chinese engineers reverse engineer lithography machine; China cooling on Japan affects tourist arrival...

Andrew Jackson

Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

​Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...

Andrew Jackson

ECM Weekly (1 December 2025)-Kioxia, Airtel, Nippon, Toyoda Gosei, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Super Bank

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation

​Q2 earnings show growth in enterprise SSD demand and smartphone NAND volumes, with Q3 guidance pointing to record revenue and margin expansion...

Rahul Jain

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Toshiba unloaded a lot of Kioxia shares in Sep/Oct. Now Bain is selling US$2bn+ of stock and there could be more next year. The recent results...

Brian Freitas

Tape weak at first but may see dip buying; Chinese engineers reverse engineer lithography machine; China cooling on Japan affects tourist arrival...

Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...

Q2 earnings show growth in enterprise SSD demand and smartphone NAND volumes, with Q3 guidance pointing to record revenue and margin expansion...