Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cycle turning: Q1 FY25 marked the trough; Q2 guidance implies +30% revenue and +46% OP rebound, with Q3 set to extend the recovery.</li>
<li>Enterprise SSDs anchor profits: ~70–75% of EBITDA tied to AI/cloud workloads, cushioning volatility in PCs and smartphones.</li>
<li>Even after a ~50% rally since September, Kioxia trades at ~5–6× EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 9–12×; sponsor selldowns and NAND ASP volatility could test the rally.</li>
</ul>


Cycle turning: Q1 FY25 marked the trough; Q2 guidance implies +30% revenue and +46% OP rebound, with Q3 set to extend the recovery.
Enterprise SSDs anchor profits: ~70–75% of EBITDA tied to AI/cloud workloads, cushioning volatility in PCs and smartphones.
Even after a ~50% rally since September, Kioxia trades at ~5–6× EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 9–12×; sponsor selldowns and NAND ASP volatility could test the rally.


Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,638m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Hitachi, Kioxia, Lasertec, Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,638m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Hitachi, Kioxia, Lasertec, Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 5th): Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric

<ul>
<li>Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.</li>
<li>Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.</li>
</ul>


Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.
Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.
Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.


Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

<ul>
<li>Q1 FY25 revenue fell 20% YoY, but enterprise SSD strength kept EBITDA positive and margins above trough levels.</li>
<li>Management guides for a strong sequential rebound in Q2–Q3 on AI-driven enterprise demand and normalized PC/smartphone inventories.</li>
<li>Kioxia trades at ~3–4× EV/EBITDA vs peers on 9–12×, despite higher NAND margins, with the gap driven by cyclicality, tech lag, and shareholder overhang.</li>
</ul>


Q1 FY25 revenue fell 20% YoY, but enterprise SSD strength kept EBITDA positive and margins above trough levels.
Management guides for a strong sequential rebound in Q2–Q3 on AI-driven enterprise demand and normalized PC/smartphone inventories.
Kioxia trades at ~3–4× EV/EBITDA vs peers on 9–12×, despite higher NAND margins, with the gap driven by cyclicality, tech lag, and shareholder overhang.


Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,417m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Nintendo, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,417m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Nintendo, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 29th): Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 5th): Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Nidec (6594 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth

Management anticipates a rebound in Q2–Q3 due to AI-driven demand and normalized inventories, but the stock trades at a discount to peers due to...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 29th): Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Yoshinoya (9861 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kioxia (285A JP): Storage Name Still Cheap; Enterprise SSDs Anchor Recovery

​Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 5th): Nidec, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Furukawa Electric

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Nidec (6594 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

​Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth

Management anticipates a rebound in Q2–Q3 due to AI-driven demand and normalized inventories, but the stock trades at a discount to peers due to...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 29th): Ryohin Keikaku, Disco, Yoshinoya, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Yoshinoya (9861 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Q1 FY25 trough marked, Q2 guidance shows strong revenue and OP rebound, Enterprise SSDs anchor profits, Kioxia trades at discount vs. peers...

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...