IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)</a> is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.   </li>
<li>Bain Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> currently own 56.23%, 40.64% and 3.13% of the voting rights, respectively. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on an attractive market opportunity, a return to revenue growth, margins close to all-time highs, a favourable cash conversion cycle, and modest leverage. </li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.   
Bain Capital, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Hoya Corp (7741 JP) currently own 56.23%, 40.64% and 3.13% of the voting rights, respectively. 
The bull case rests on an attractive market opportunity, a return to revenue growth, margins close to all-time highs, a favourable cash conversion cycle, and modest leverage. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)</a> is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we undertake a peer comparison.


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kioxia has been under-investing in Capex (27% of revenue versus competitors 37%) and R&amp;D (5% versus 11%) because Free Cash Flow is low, too low to pay back debt. </li>
<li>The Memory cycle peaked in June-24 and NAND prices have been declining since. Memory stocks (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) peaked in June. </li>
<li>The valuations multiples that reconcile with a US$4.9bn market value are half or one-third that of competitors. A huge discount is applied, reflecting the financial and technological weakness of Kioxia. </li>
</ul>


Kioxia has been under-investing in Capex (27% of revenue versus competitors 37%) and R&amp;D (5% versus 11%) because Free Cash Flow is low, too low to pay back debt. 
The Memory cycle peaked in June-24 and NAND prices have been declining since. Memory stocks (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) peaked in June. 
The valuations multiples that reconcile with a US$4.9bn market value are half or one-third that of competitors. A huge discount is applied, reflecting the financial and technological weakness of Kioxia. 


Kioxia Part 2: Financials (Under-Investments, Razor-Thin FCF), Valuations (Memory Cycle Has Peaked)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)</a> is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Kioxoa Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Follower of the Cycle

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!</li>
<li>Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.</li>
<li>The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.


Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on an attractive market opportunity, a return to revenue growth, margins close to all-time highs, a favourable cash conversion...

Arun George

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer...

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Part 2: Financials (Under-Investments, Razor-Thin FCF), Valuations (Memory Cycle Has Peaked)

Kioxia's underinvestment in Capex and R&D due to low Free Cash Flow, which also makes repaying debt impossible. Significant valuations discount...

Nicolas Baratte

Kioxoa Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Follower of the Cycle

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so...

Sumeet Singh

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on an attractive market opportunity, a return to revenue growth, margins close to all-time highs, a favourable cash conversion...

Arun George

Kioxia Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer...

Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Part 2: Financials (Under-Investments, Razor-Thin FCF), Valuations (Memory Cycle Has Peaked)

​Kioxia's underinvestment in Capex and R&D due to low Free Cash Flow, which also makes repaying debt impossible. Significant valuations discount...

Nicolas Baratte

Kioxoa Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Follower of the Cycle

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is aiming to raise around US$700m (including over-allocation) from its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so...

Sumeet Singh

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000...

Fabricated Knowledge

Kioxia's underinvestment in Capex and R&D due to low Free Cash Flow, which also makes repaying debt impossible. Significant valuations discount...