IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY8,620 per share, a 55.5% premium to the undisturbed (24 November). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables represent a 40.31% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> is not seeing any change in competitive landscape of its key drug, Eylea, which contributes 27% of total revenue. No immediate biosimilar launch is expected.</li>
<li>Approval of bioidentical authorized generic version of Eylea in Japan, label expansion, and potential launch of high dose of the same drug will enable to combat with upcoming biosimilar competition.</li>
<li>Santen expects China market to revive in FY24. Additionally new products launch and widening geographic presence to drive mid-to-long-term growth of the company.</li>
</ul>



Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) is not seeing any change in competitive landscape of its key drug, Eylea, which contributes 27% of total revenue. No immediate biosimilar launch is expected.
Approval of bioidentical authorized generic version of Eylea in Japan, label expansion, and potential launch of high dose of the same drug will enable to combat with upcoming biosimilar competition.
Santen expects China market to revive in FY24. Additionally new products launch and widening geographic presence to drive mid-to-long-term growth of the company.


Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Profit to Improve This Year; China Reopening, New Products Hold Key

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alteogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15886:1" rel="noopener">Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)</a> signed its fourth licensing deal for ALT-B4, a proprietary human recombinant hyaluronidase enzyme, with Sandoz. Given the strong demand more such deals are expected to follow.</li>
<li>Alteogen is reportedly in talks with global pharmaceutical companies for a technology transfer deal for Herceptin SC biosimilar. If successful, Alteogen will be a re-rating candidate.</li>
<li>Alteogen has established Altos Biologics to facilitate global phase 3 clinical trials and commercial development of Eylea biosimilar. Altos Biologics aims to be listed on the KOSDAQ in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Alteogen Inc (196170 KS) signed its fourth licensing deal for ALT-B4, a proprietary human recombinant hyaluronidase enzyme, with Sandoz. Given the strong demand more such deals are expected to follow.
Alteogen is reportedly in talks with global pharmaceutical companies for a technology transfer deal for Herceptin SC biosimilar. If successful, Alteogen will be a re-rating candidate.
Alteogen has established Altos Biologics to facilitate global phase 3 clinical trials and commercial development of Eylea biosimilar. Altos Biologics aims to be listed on the KOSDAQ in 2024.


Alteogen (196170 KS): Distinct Platform Technology; Biosimilar Pipeline; Potential Value Unlocking

Japan

KISSEI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells a variety of prescription drugs.  The Company's main products are for cholesterol, high blood pressure, digestion, allergy, circulatory and respiratory diseases, and Parkinson's disease.

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Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP)

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY8,620

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 44% minority acceptance rate. The offer is attractive vs. historical and peer multiples.

Arun George

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

CELSYS has been working for a move to the Prime Market since August 2022 and with the recent rise in share price they could be able to satisfy all...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Profit to Improve This Year; China Reopening, New Products Hold Key

Santen is seeing no major change in the competitive landscape of its flagship drug. The company is launching multiple new products and widening...

Tina Banerjee

Alteogen (196170 KS): Distinct Platform Technology; Biosimilar Pipeline; Potential Value Unlocking

Alteogen’s formulation platform change technology is in constant demand. The company can be potential first-mover in Eylea biosimilar. Its...

Tina Banerjee

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