Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The shared economy companies&nbsp;are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation" target="_blank">disruptive</a> businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be darlings of Wall Street if they decide to go public. But will they live up to the hype? Possibly in the long run, some things could go downhill. But with access to capital, low debts and high reach, these companies are likely to cover their tracks and stay on top in the near future. But skeptics would compare these possible high profile IPOs to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/joanlappin/2013/11/11/two-years-after-its-busted-ipo-groupon-still-cant-turn-a-profit/" target="_blank">Groupon</a> and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102020026" target="_blank">Alibaba</a> which saw decline in shares after going public. Time will tell.

The shared economy companies&nbsp;are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be darlings of Wall Street if they decide to go public. But will they live up to the hype? Possibly in the long run, some things could go downhill. But with access to capital, low debts and high reach, these companies are likely to cover their tracks and stay on top in the near future. But skeptics would compare these possible high profile IPOs to Groupon and Alibaba which saw decline in shares after going public. Time will tell.

Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Applied Materials, TSMC, ASML Holding, Broadcom and ARM Holdings.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.</li>
<li>LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.</li>
<li>The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!


LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Tekscend Photomask / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203592" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203753" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204079" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.
I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

United States

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

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KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)

Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

The shared economy companies are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be...

Ishita Jain

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

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Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

The shared economy companies are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be...

Ishita Jain

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...