US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.</li>
</ul>



Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.

Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.

Klarna Group (KLAR US) can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.


Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna priced a full-size IPO of 34.3 million shares at $40.00, coming in $3 above the marketed range. Shares opened on Tuesday at $52.00, a +30.0% gain at first trade.</li>
<li>The deal reflected exceptional institutional interest, reportedly 25x oversubscribed, with half the order book zeroed. The top 10 accounts received 45% of allocations, and the top 25 took 65%.</li>
<li>It's difficult to forecast 30-days out with this IPO given the market moving headlines and events expected. Overall, we believe that the stock could trade flat to slightly higher.</li>
</ul>


Klarna priced a full-size IPO of 34.3 million shares at $40.00, coming in $3 above the marketed range. Shares opened on Tuesday at $52.00, a +30.0% gain at first trade.
The deal reflected exceptional institutional interest, reportedly 25x oversubscribed, with half the order book zeroed. The top 10 accounts received 45% of allocations, and the top 25 took 65%.
It's difficult to forecast 30-days out with this IPO given the market moving headlines and events expected. Overall, we believe that the stock could trade flat to slightly higher.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating</li>
<li>On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi</li>
</ul>


Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed
The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating
On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

<ul>
<li>Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).</li>
<li>The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. </li>
<li>The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.</li>
</ul>


Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. 
The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

<ul>
<li>Klarna shares are set to start NYSE trading on 10 September; the issue price range implies a market capitalisation of USD12.8bn to USD13.6bn; we believe that its valuation looks underwhelming</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation versus its peers does, however, show Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we downgrade it to a sell; we upgrade Kakao Pay to a neutral from sell</li>
<li>We keep PagSeguro, PayPal and Nexi on the buy list for their value credentials; we believe that PayPal is also the best value of the major BNPL players</li>
</ul>


Klarna shares are set to start NYSE trading on 10 September; the issue price range implies a market capitalisation of USD12.8bn to USD13.6bn; we believe that its valuation looks underwhelming
The Klarna IPO valuation versus its peers does, however, show Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we downgrade it to a sell; we upgrade Kakao Pay to a neutral from sell
We keep PagSeguro, PayPal and Nexi on the buy list for their value credentials; we believe that PayPal is also the best value of the major BNPL players


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

United States

Klarna is a Swedish fintech company that provides online financial services. The company provides payment processing services for the e-commerce industry.

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Klarna Group (KLAR US)

Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.

IPO Boutique

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

​KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

​Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.

IPO Boutique

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

​Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) - Underwhelming Valuations Against Key Comparables

​Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...

Victor Galliano

KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Klarna is due to IPO, with its valuation underwhelming relative to peers; we downgrade Affirm to a sell due to very rich valuations, and we stick...