Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.
We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV


Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs collected illegally since Liberation Day last year.  The refunds will go mostly to large corporate importers.</li>
<li>
The tariff policy, which the President is intent on restarting, did not help industrial manufacturing employment or reduce the trade deficit.  Inflation is much higher than when Trump took office.</li>
<li>The BNPL industry is reflecting the strains on the US consumer.  Delinquencies are rising, and the average transaction price is declining as users begin using BNPL for everyday purchases.</li>
</ul>


The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs collected illegally since Liberation Day last year.  The refunds will go mostly to large corporate importers.

The tariff policy, which the President is intent on restarting, did not help industrial manufacturing employment or reduce the trade deficit.  Inflation is much higher than when Trump took office.
The BNPL industry is reflecting the strains on the US consumer.  Delinquencies are rising, and the average transaction price is declining as users begin using BNPL for everyday purchases.


CHARTING COURSE: Tariffs; Here Today, Gone Tomorrow and BNPL Feeding Subprime Consumers

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Bolt generated about $27M in revenue in 2023, up 4% from $26M in 2022.</li><li>It was last valued at $11B for a valuation/revenue multiple of 392x.</li><li>Boltʼs business model hinges on acquiring retailers that bring millions of new shopper accounts to Bolt that it can take to other retailers to build network effects.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Bolt generated about $27M in revenue in 2023, up 4% from $26M in 2022.It was last valued at $11B for a valuation/revenue multiple of 392x.Boltʼs business model hinges on acquiring retailers that bring millions of new shopper accounts to Bolt that it can take to other retailers to build network effects.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Varo generated $153.4M in gross revenue in 2025, down 1% YoY from $154.8M in 2024, as growth stalled after 2024&#39;s 20% jump from $129M in 2023.</li><li>Profitability has moved in the opposite direction of what the growth story would suggest: net losses narrowed sharply from $105.2M in 2023 to $65.0M in 2024, but widened back out to $91.8M in 2025.</li><li>Varo&#39;s total equity capital declined to approximately $54M in Q3 2025 while the company continued posting significant losses (nearly $65M in December 2024).</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Varo generated $153.4M in gross revenue in 2025, down 1% YoY from $154.8M in 2024, as growth stalled after 2024&#39;s 20% jump from $129M in 2023.Profitability has moved in the opposite direction of what the growth story would suggest: net losses narrowed sharply from $105.2M in 2023 to $65.0M in 2024, but widened back out to $91.8M in 2025.Varo&#39;s total equity capital declined to approximately $54M in Q3 2025 while the company continued posting significant losses (nearly $65M in December 2024).

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Swile generated $265M in 2025, up 20% YoY from $221M in 2024 and $176M in 2023.</li><li>Swile generated $17M in net income in 2025, up from $2M in 2024, and reached roughly $57M in implied EBITDA.</li><li>Swile acquired five companies with new products, such as gift vouchers and employee engagement tools, coming out of these acquisitions.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Swile generated $265M in 2025, up 20% YoY from $221M in 2024 and $176M in 2023.Swile generated $17M in net income in 2025, up from $2M in 2024, and reached roughly $57M in implied EBITDA.Swile acquired five companies with new products, such as gift vouchers and employee engagement tools, coming out of these acquisitions.

United States

Klarna is a Swedish fintech company that provides online financial services. The company provides payment processing services for the e-commerce industry.

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Klarna Group (KLAR US)

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. Charts Highlighted: XLF, XLU, HOOD, DAVE, SEZL, AFRM, UPST,...

Vermilion Research

CHARTING COURSE: Tariffs; Here Today, Gone Tomorrow and BNPL Feeding Subprime Consumers

The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs that were illegally collected since Liberation Day last year. The...

David Mudd

Primer: Bolt - 10 Jul 2026

Checkout software for ecommerce merchants offering one-click login, identity, and payments

Sacra

Primer: Varo - 09 Jul 2026

Mobile banking app offering checking accounts, savings, and debit cards to consumers

Sacra

Primer: Swile - 09 Jul 2026

Smart card and app for managing employee meal, gift, and travel benefits

Sacra

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