Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera (3048 JP)</a> and Japan's largest mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/781/original/2020-10-07_06-18-08.png?1602019101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163781"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/782/original/2020-10-07_06-18-56.png?1602019156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163782"></figure><div class="content-caption"><span>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</span></div><div><hr></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: +0.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: </strong>25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.3 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest mall operator AEON Mall (8905 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.3 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

<p>The latest survey of Japanese e-commerce by the Ministry of Trade, Economy &amp; Industry (METI) is now out showing that the e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in FY2019. The current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s expectations.</p><p>Online sales of goods alone rose to over ¥10 trillion and total e-commerce transactions hit ¥19.3 trillion.</p><p>Apparel and food remain the two largest categories online, but publishing saw the biggest growth in 2019 as suppliers finally accepted the inevitable consumer shift to electronic versions.</p><p>At 6.2%, EC penetration in Japan remains much lower than either the USA or UK, where the channel reportedly accounts for 9.9% and 20.7% of retail respectively. This is in part because Japan has as many stores as the US, a market with three times the population, making stores that much more accessible. The current crisis however has accelerated the shift to online, a worry for physical retailers of all kinds.</p><p><strong>EC remains on track to break 10% of merchandise sales by 2025 at the latest and, especially with the shift online over the past nine months, could even hit that target in the next three years.</strong></p>

The latest survey of Japanese e-commerce by the Ministry of Trade, Economy &amp; Industry (METI) is now out showing that the e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in FY2019. The current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s expectations.Online sales of goods alone rose to over ¥10 trillion and total e-commerce transactions hit ¥19.3 trillion.Apparel and food remain the two largest categories online, but publishing saw the biggest growth in 2019 as suppliers finally accepted the inevitable consumer shift to electronic versions.At 6.2%, EC penetration in Japan remains much lower than either the USA or UK, where the channel reportedly accounts for 9.9% and 20.7% of retail respectively. This is in part because Japan has as many stores as the US, a market with three times the population, making stores that much more accessible. The current crisis however has accelerated the shift to online, a worry for physical retailers of all kinds.EC remains on track to break 10% of merchandise sales by 2025 at the latest and, especially with the shift online over the past nine months, could even hit that target in the next three years.

Japan E-Commerce Breaks ¥10 Trillion, Set for Major Boost This Year

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bic Camera plans to invest in omnichannel, believing that many shoppers will continue to prefer shopping in store – and that stores are also the best way to reach tourists.</li>
<li>It will redesign stores to offer more experiential shopping and rethink its merchandise strategy.</li>
<li>It also needs to consider changes in Ikebukuro if it is to compete against the incoming Yodobashi Camera.</li>
</ul>


Bic Camera plans to invest in omnichannel, believing that many shoppers will continue to prefer shopping in store – and that stores are also the best way to reach tourists.
It will redesign stores to offer more experiential shopping and rethink its merchandise strategy.
It also needs to consider changes in Ikebukuro if it is to compete against the incoming Yodobashi Camera.


Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

Japan

KOJIMA CO., LTD. operates electronics retail stores based in Tochigi Prefecture, and throughout Japan.  The Company sells household electric appliances, PCs, and Audio Visual equipment.  Kojima also operates wedding receptions and restaurants.

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Kojima Co Ltd (7513 JP)

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

Japan E-Commerce Breaks ¥10 Trillion, Set for Major Boost This Year

The e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in 2019 and the current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s...

Michael Causton

Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...

Michael Causton

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[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

Japan E-Commerce Breaks ¥10 Trillion, Set for Major Boost This Year

The e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in 2019 and the current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s...

Michael Causton

Bic Camera to Focus on Omnichannel Amidst Consumer Electronics Saturation

​Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...

Michael Causton

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

Bic Camera to invest in omnichannel, focusing on experiential in-store shopping to attract tourists but the market is facing saturation. Bic is...