Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NFC (265740 KS) is a Korean cosmetics company which has rapidly increased its ODM business sales in the past two years. </li>
<li>NFC's customers include Equalberry, Cellimax, Dr. Althea and Beauty of Joseon, brands whose products are increasingly visible outside Korea.</li>
<li>Based on consensus net profit estimate of 18.5 billion won (2027E) and a 12x P/E, this would result in a market cap of 222 billion won (91% higher than now). </li>
</ul>


NFC (265740 KS) is a Korean cosmetics company which has rapidly increased its ODM business sales in the past two years. 
NFC's customers include Equalberry, Cellimax, Dr. Althea and Beauty of Joseon, brands whose products are increasingly visible outside Korea.
Based on consensus net profit estimate of 18.5 billion won (2027E) and a 12x P/E, this would result in a market cap of 222 billion won (91% higher than now). 


Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean stock market, economy, &amp; politics in June 2020:
<ul>
<li>SK Biopharm IPO</li>
<li>SK Holdings downgrade</li>
<li>Capital gains tax on stocks and funds in Korea</li>
<li>China scraps "Han Han Ryung" (Law that Banned Korean culture-related products/services)</li>
<li>A Surge in Value of Nikola Corp</li>
<li>North Korea suspends all communication with South Korea</li>
<li>Positioning ahead of KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance in December</li>
<li>IGIS Value Plus REIT &amp; IGIS Residence REIT IPOs</li>
<li>Korean preferred shares: Bamboo trees of Korean stock market</li>
<li>Korea Small Cap Gem #3: New Tree Co</li>
</ul>

Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean stock market, economy, &amp; politics in June 2020:

SK Biopharm IPO
SK Holdings downgrade
Capital gains tax on stocks and funds in Korea
China scraps "Han Han Ryung" (Law that Banned Korean culture-related products/services)
A Surge in Value of Nikola Corp
North Korea suspends all communication with South Korea
Positioning ahead of KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance in December
IGIS Value Plus REIT &amp; IGIS Residence REIT IPOs
Korean preferred shares: Bamboo trees of Korean stock market
Korea Small Cap Gem #3: New Tree Co


Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #49 (June 2020)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

South Korea

Kolmar Korea Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes personal care products. The Company produces cosmetics. Kolmar Korea also produces medicine and healthcare products.

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Kolmar Korea (161890 KS)

Korea Small Cap Gem #70: NFC Corp

NFC (265740 KS) is a Korean cosmetics company which has rapidly increased its ODM business sales in the past two years. It is deeply undervalued.

Douglas Kim

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #49 (June 2020)

Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean stock market, economy, & politics in June 2020: SK Biopharm IPO SK Holdings downgrade Capital gains...

Douglas Kim

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of...

Brian Freitas

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