Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Bobcat Inc / Equity Capital Markets

This is Part I of our in-depth analysis of Doosan Bobcat IPO. Our Part I report has three major sections, including a) comparable companies valuation/margins analysis, b) an explanation of a potential cyclical downturn in the US housing market, and c) a financial analysis of the company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23592" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23592:1">Doosan Bobcat Inc. (1253130D KS)</a>, which was established on April 25th, 2014, manufactures compact construction equipment including skid-steer loaders, compact track loaders, mini-excavators, and generators.Our initial valuation analysis suggests that the intrinsic value of Doosan Bobcat shares are about 8-22% lower than the low-end IPO valuation range of 4.1 trillion won (US$3.7 billion) which would be about 3.2 trillion won (US$2.95 billion) to 3.77 trillion won (US$3.4 billion).

This is Part I of our in-depth analysis of Doosan Bobcat IPO. Our Part I report has three major sections, including a) comparable companies valuation/margins analysis, b) an explanation of a potential cyclical downturn in the US housing market, and c) a financial analysis of the company. Doosan Bobcat Inc. (1253130D KS), which was established on April 25th, 2014, manufactures compact construction equipment including skid-steer loaders, compact track loaders, mini-excavators, and generators.Our initial valuation analysis suggests that the intrinsic value of Doosan Bobcat shares are about 8-22% lower than the low-end IPO valuation range of 4.1 trillion won (US$3.7 billion) which would be about 3.2 trillion won (US$2.95 billion) to 3.77 trillion won (US$3.4 billion). 

Doosan Bobcat IPO (Part 1) - Beware of High Valuation & A Cyclical Downturn

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Credit markets: Global yields drifted lower in recent months, thanks to the low interest rate environment, ongoing stimulus imposed by the ECB as well as launch of quantitative easing by the Bank of England following Britain’s vote to exit the EU. Excessive demand for sovereign debt sent yields to negative territory and Germany’s 10-year sovereign paper to -0.2% in July. Meanwhile, corporate shipping and energy issuers offer higher yields at greater risk because of the low oil price and weak…

• Credit markets: Global yields drifted lower in recent months, thanks to the low interest rate environment, ongoing stimulus imposed by the ECB as well as launch of quantitative easing by the Bank of England following Britain’s vote to exit the EU. Excessive demand for sovereign debt sent yields to negative territory and Germany’s 10-year sovereign paper to -0.2% in July. Meanwhile, corporate shipping and energy issuers offer higher yields at greater risk because of the low oil price and weak…

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights - September 2016

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Doosan Bobcat will do an IR (NDR) meeting from Sep 26 to Oct 7. The company will then conduct a demand survey from Oct 6 to 7. The company set its desired IPO price band at ₩41,000-50,000. How would the institutional investors respond to this price band in this demand survey?<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Sep 26 to Oct 7</td>
<td>IPO IR meeting</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct 6 to 7</td>
<td>Demand survey</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct 12 to 13</td>
<td>Subscription period</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct 17</td>
<td>Allotment &amp; payment</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct 21</td>
<td>IPO listing</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>According to Doosan Bobcat's registration statement, Doosan Bobcat's valuation calculation is quite…

Doosan Bobcat will do an IR (NDR) meeting from Sep 26 to Oct 7. The company will then conduct a demand survey from Oct 6 to 7. The company set its desired IPO price band at ₩41,000-50,000. How would the institutional investors respond to this price band in this demand survey?

Sep 26 to Oct 7
IPO IR meeting


Oct 6 to 7
Demand survey


Oct 12 to 13
Subscription period


Oct 17
Allotment &amp; payment


Oct 21
IPO listing

According to Doosan Bobcat's registration statement, Doosan Bobcat's valuation calculation is quite…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/710" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:710">Pelham Smithers</a> came out with a worthwhile comment on the Q4 seasonality of Japanese markets. I agree with their assessment of being bullish Japan into Q4 as discussed in my ongoing "Japan Flow" series about BOJ ETF buying (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-i-the-boj-s-new-etf-buying" target="_blank">I</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-ii-just-what-etfs-does-the-boj-buy-could-we-see-an-april2000-style-nikkei-225-rebal" target="_blank">II</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-iii-the-mechanics-of-boj-buying" target="_blank">III</a>) and activity by foreigners on the TSE over time (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-iv-foreign-flows-matter-they-have-clear-cycles" target="_blank">Japan Flow IV</a>). All that series should tell you that "flows matter" and it should give you some idea of when flows may come and their impact. In this case though, I thought the seasonality data was worth…

Pelham Smithers came out with a worthwhile comment on the Q4 seasonality of Japanese markets. I agree with their assessment of being bullish Japan into Q4 as discussed in my ongoing "Japan Flow" series about BOJ ETF buying (I, II, and III) and activity by foreigners on the TSE over time (Japan Flow IV). All that series should tell you that "flows matter" and it should give you some idea of when flows may come and their impact. In this case though, I thought the seasonality data was worth…

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Late Q4 Is Indeed Good

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Two recent press articles "Muddy Waters and Andrew Left: the short sellers having a ball" ( <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8f87b1da-70c7-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/8f87b1da-70c7-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926</a> ) and a piece by Breakingviews' Quentin Webb "Building Consensus" ( <a href="http://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/tokyos-analysts-outperform-on-a-bad-metric/" target="_blank">http://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/tokyos-analysts-outperform-on-a-bad-metric/</a> ) document the rise and the need for short sell research in the Japanese stock market. However, like much about the Japanese stock market, we would argue that the situation is nothing…

Two recent press articles "Muddy Waters and Andrew Left: the short sellers having a ball" ( https://www.ft.com/content/8f87b1da-70c7-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926 ) and a piece by Breakingviews' Quentin Webb "Building Consensus" ( http://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/tokyos-analysts-outperform-on-a-bad-metric/ ) document the rise and the need for short sell research in the Japanese stock market. However, like much about the Japanese stock market, we would argue that the situation is nothing…

Short Sell Research Vs The Japan Stock Market Blob

Japan

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)

Doosan Bobcat IPO (Part 1) - Beware of High Valuation & A Cyclical Downturn

This is Part I of our in-depth analysis of Doosan Bobcat IPO. Our Part I report has three major sections, including a) comparable companies...

Douglas Kim

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights - September 2016

• Credit markets: Global yields drifted lower in recent months, thanks to the low interest rate environment, ongoing stimulus imposed by the ECB as...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Doosan Bobcat IPO Valuation

Doosan Bobcat will do an IR (NDR) meeting from Sep 26 to Oct 7. The company will then conduct a demand survey from Oct 6 to 7. The company set its...

Sanghyun Park

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Late Q4 Is Indeed Good

Pelham Smithers came out with a worthwhile comment on the Q4 seasonality of Japanese markets. I agree with their assessment of being bullish Japan...

Travis Lundy

Short Sell Research Vs The Japan Stock Market Blob

Two recent press articles "Muddy Waters and Andrew Left: the short sellers having a ball" (...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)