Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
<li>Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.</li>
<li>We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
</ul>


Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.
Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.
We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.


New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Equity Capital Markets

Sany Heavy Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.</li>
<li>IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.</li>
<li>There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.


Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

<ul>
<li>Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micronics-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6871 Micronics</a> after yesterdays excessive weakness.</li>
<li>More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.</li>
<li>Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.</li>
</ul>


Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift 6871 Micronics after yesterdays excessive weakness.
More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.
Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.


Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

<ul>
<li>US rebound lacks breadth, and while tech should be strong to start it may be too early to predict an extended rally off the lows in Japan after yesterday's gains.</li>
<li>An SMCI after-market miss is dulling the mood which may also dent sentiment for AI/SPE related to start.</li>
<li>A good print from CAT sets a positive tone for the likes of 6301 Komatsu and 6326 Kubota who were both sold heavily in the recent panic.</li>
</ul>


US rebound lacks breadth, and while tech should be strong to start it may be too early to predict an extended rally off the lows in Japan after yesterday's gains.
An SMCI after-market miss is dulling the mood which may also dent sentiment for AI/SPE related to start.
A good print from CAT sets a positive tone for the likes of 6301 Komatsu and 6326 Kubota who were both sold heavily in the recent panic.


Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

Japan

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

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Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)

New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.

Douglas Kim

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...

Andrew Jackson

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New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.

Douglas Kim

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

​Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

​US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...

Andrew Jackson

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

US rebound lacks breadth, tech may be strong but early to predict extended rally in Japan. SMCI after-market miss may dent sentiment, CAT's good...