Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited / Event-Driven

This week in StubWorld ...
<ul>
<li>Renewed SOE interest focusing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a>'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term question mark over its polysilicon/wafer ops.</li>
</ul>
Preceding my comments on GCL, Naspers and other holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

This week in StubWorld ...

Renewed SOE interest focusing on Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term question mark over its polysilicon/wafer ops.

Preceding my comments on GCL, Naspers and other holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

StubWorld: New Interest In GCL's New Energy

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

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Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to gamble in overseas casinos. Our contacts in the industry have already seen immediate termination of marketing efforts in mainland China by Macau casinos, which imply lower near-term gaming revenue in our view. A loss of higher-margin direct VIP business could also mean lower overall VIP margin for the Macau casinos, as junket VIP margins are one to two percentage points lower compared with direct VIP margins. Near-term sentiment will be unfavorable for the Macau gaming stocks. However, we gauge that marketing activities in mainland China will resurface as the dust settles, though casinos will take a lower-profile approach.To reflect the short-term impact, if we reduced 2016 full-year VIP, mass and slot revenue by 7.5% for our Macau gaming coverage, there would still be no impact on fair value estimates. Therefore, we maintain our long-term forecast and long-term-based, DCF-generated fair value estimates. Our narrow moat ratings also remain unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to gamble in overseas casinos. Our contacts in the industry have already seen immediate termination of marketing efforts in mainland China by Macau casinos, which imply lower near-term gaming revenue in our view. A loss of higher-margin direct VIP business could also mean lower overall VIP margin for the Macau casinos, as junket VIP margins are one to two percentage points lower compared with direct VIP margins. Near-term sentiment will be unfavorable for the Macau gaming stocks. However, we gauge that marketing activities in mainland China will resurface as the dust settles, though casinos will take a lower-profile approach.To reflect the short-term impact, if we reduced 2016 full-year VIP, mass and slot revenue by 7.5% for our Macau gaming coverage, there would still be no impact on fair value estimates. Therefore, we maintain our long-term forecast and long-term-based, DCF-generated fair value estimates. Our narrow moat ratings also remain unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Negative Near-Term Read-Throughs from the Detainment of Crown Resorts' Marketing Executives in China

Hong Kong

Kong Sun Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries,  invests, develops and operates solar PV power plants.

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Kong Sun Holdings (295 HK)

StubWorld: New Interest In GCL's New Energy

This week in StubWorld ... Renewed SOE interest focusing on Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term...

David Blennerhassett

Negative Near-Term Read-Throughs from the Detainment of Crown Resorts' Marketing Executives in China

Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to...

Morningstar, Inc.

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