'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/061/original/2020-05-27_06-45-23.png?1590529581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136061"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-<ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.</li>
<li>For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu (4324 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.
For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Recruit (6098 JP), Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP), and Dentsu (4324 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. </li>
<li>The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.</li>
<li>Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. 
The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.
Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

After the 48 volume spikes on Monday, things got back to normal yesterday with only 6 names spiking on volume. The biggest standout is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:108:1">Showa Shell Sekiyu Kk (5002 JP)</a> which was up 1.3% but had a 6% intraday move on almost 7 standard deviations of volume. <h2>Yesterday's Moves on Volume</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/735/original/1.png?1494358087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="25735"></figure><h2>Moved on News</h2>Showa Shell was up 1.3% on the back of an alliance with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP)</a> announcement. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17287" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1">Konica Minolta Inc (4902 JP)</a> was down 1.3% on strong volume. Panasonic announced it was selling…

After the 48 volume spikes on Monday, things got back to normal yesterday with only 6 names spiking on volume. The biggest standout is Showa Shell Sekiyu Kk (5002 JP) which was up 1.3% but had a 6% intraday move on almost 7 standard deviations of volume. Yesterday's Moves on VolumeMoved on NewsShowa Shell was up 1.3% on the back of an alliance with Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) announcement. Konica Minolta Inc (4902 JP) was down 1.3% on strong volume. Panasonic announced it was selling…

Leakage Report - 5/9/17 - Showa Shell up on Almost 7 Standard Deviations of Volume....

Japan

Konica Minolta Inc is mainly engaged in manufacturing office equipment and performance materials. It also operates health care businesses. The Company also makes copiers, personal computer peripherals, optical lenses, and measuring instruments.

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Konica Minolta (4902 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results...

Campbell Gunn

BBSP Asia Weekly Equity Book

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ SOUTH KOREA:...

BBSP Asia

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

Leakage Report - 5/9/17 - Showa Shell up on Almost 7 Standard Deviations of Volume....

After the 48 volume spikes on Monday, things got back to normal yesterday with only 6 names spiking on volume. The biggest standout is Showa Shell...

Custom Products Group

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