Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | Huyghe enters Haacht sale process • Philips/Shell | confirmed hacks by Russia-linked ransomware group</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | Huyghe enters Haacht sale process • Philips/Shell | confirmed hacks by Russia-linked ransomware group

What's News in Amsterdam - 14 August (Heineken | Philips/Shell)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.</li>
<li>Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.</li>
<li>Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.</li>
</ul>


Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.
Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.
Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.


Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

<ul><li>In this edition: • Philips | increases FY26 adjusted EBITA and FCF outlook reflecting US tariff refund benefit • Basic-Fit | updates FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDA less rent • DHL | DHL eCommerce to strengthen position in the Baltics with Venipak acquisition • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein reports 1Q26 net loss of USD 99m</li></ul>

In this edition: • Philips | increases FY26 adjusted EBITA and FCF outlook reflecting US tariff refund benefit • Basic-Fit | updates FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDA less rent • DHL | DHL eCommerce to strengthen position in the Baltics with Venipak acquisition • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein reports 1Q26 net loss of USD 99m

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (Philips | Basic-Fit | DHL | E-com & Logistics)

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>Recently a note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> was published on SK. Being a potential game changer, we analyzed technical publications to see how well the company is positioned</li>
<li>Currently, Shockwave Medical is likely the only player in the intravascular lithotripsy market. As the intravascular device deals with calcified lesions, its primary competition is from the atherectomy market </li>
<li>Despite being a recent company with a new technology it ranks third in innovating in the area of - removing/modifying obstructions, calculi and pre-procedure preparation for intravascular intervention.</li>
</ul>


Recently a note on Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) was published on SK. Being a potential game changer, we analyzed technical publications to see how well the company is positioned
Currently, Shockwave Medical is likely the only player in the intravascular lithotripsy market. As the intravascular device deals with calcified lesions, its primary competition is from the atherectomy market 
Despite being a recent company with a new technology it ranks third in innovating in the area of - removing/modifying obstructions, calculi and pre-procedure preparation for intravascular intervention.


Datamining Tech Publications to Assess Shockwave's Paradigm Shift Solution In Vascular Interventions

Netherlands

Koninklijke Philips NV is a health technology company focused on improving people's health across the health continuum from healthy living and prevention, to diagnosis, treatment, and home care. The Company offers products and services in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring and health informatics, as well as in consumer health and home care.

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Koninklijke Philips NV (PHIA NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 14 August (Heineken | Philips/Shell)

In this edition: • Heineken | Huyghe enters Haacht sale process • Philips/Shell | confirmed hacks by Russia-linked ransomware group

The IDEA!

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Q3 results of large U.S. medtech companies recorded procedure volume growth. However, macroeconomic headwinds are expected to prevail. Similar...

Tina Banerjee

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (Philips | Basic-Fit | DHL | E-com & Logistics)

In this edition: • Philips | increases FY26 adjusted EBITA and FCF outlook reflecting US tariff refund benefit • Basic-Fit | updates FY26 guidance...

The IDEA!

Datamining Tech Publications to Assess Shockwave's Paradigm Shift Solution In Vascular Interventions

Shockwave’s intravascular lithotripsy product could become a game changer in dealing with coronary calcium and may offer a more effective solution...

Pyari Menon

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