Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.</li>
<li>Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> has outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.</li>
</ul>


Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.
Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX has outperformed the KOSDAQ 150 Index, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dn-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44474:1" rel="noopener">DN Solutions (298440 KS)</a> is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>The highest probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dn-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44474:1" rel="noopener">DN Solutions</a> being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI200 Index</a> is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.</li>
<li>Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.</li>
</ul>



DN Solutions (298440 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
The highest probability of DN Solutions being added to the KOSPI200 Index is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.
Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.


DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.</li>
<li>The big rally has taken <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gemvax-kael-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17026:1" rel="noopener">Gemvax &amp; Kael</a> into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13560:1" rel="noopener">ISC Co</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techwing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5735:1" rel="noopener">Techwing</a> dropping out of inclusion zone.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
The big rally has taken Gemvax &amp; Kael into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to ISC Co and Techwing dropping out of inclusion zone.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.</li>
<li>Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> is examined.</li>
<li>Options market pricing seems to lean toward a "surprise and no-change" outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.
Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is examined.
Options market pricing seems to lean toward a "surprise and no-change" outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.


KOSPI 200 - Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

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