Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.</li>
<li>Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.</li>
<li>Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.
Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.
Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.


Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS' US$8.2bn Allocation

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>NPS abruptly joins 'Corporate Value Up Program', plans to select three asset managers. Deadline: this month's 29th; results: March 19th, possibly linked to Korea Premium Index ETF launch in mid-May.</li>
<li>The document outlines guidelines, allocating 90-100% to value stocks, with KOSDAQ under 20%. While benchmarked to the internally-built index, it will likely focus on Korea Premium Index and KOSDAQ Global.</li>
<li>The fund size is crucial. NPS will disclose details later. But still, there is considerable room to this year's ceiling for local equity; a significant amount could flow into this.</li>
</ul>


NPS abruptly joins 'Corporate Value Up Program', plans to select three asset managers. Deadline: this month's 29th; results: March 19th, possibly linked to Korea Premium Index ETF launch in mid-May.
The document outlines guidelines, allocating 90-100% to value stocks, with KOSDAQ under 20%. While benchmarked to the internally-built index, it will likely focus on Korea Premium Index and KOSDAQ Global.
The fund size is crucial. NPS will disclose details later. But still, there is considerable room to this year's ceiling for local equity; a significant amount could flow into this.


Korea NPS Abruptly Joins Corporate Value Up Program: According to Document Obtained from NPS

<ul>
<li>Estimating FINANCIAL INVESTMENT's dividend arbitrage positions' exact size and liquidation plans is challenging. Yet, past trading patterns suggest a substantial portion may be liquidated soon, akin to January's volume (≥₩2T).</li>
<li>Many local market participants expect a scenario unfolding post-March, aligning with KOSPI companies rescheduling ex-dividend dates. Expect substantial position liquidation by April's end, likely impacting index negatively, akin to January.</li>
<li>Position setups should adapt to short-term index corrections, leveraging earnings season for earnings-based spreads using index short hedging.</li>
</ul>


Estimating FINANCIAL INVESTMENT's dividend arbitrage positions' exact size and liquidation plans is challenging. Yet, past trading patterns suggest a substantial portion may be liquidated soon, akin to January's volume (≥₩2T).
Many local market participants expect a scenario unfolding post-March, aligning with KOSPI companies rescheduling ex-dividend dates. Expect substantial position liquidation by April's end, likely impacting index negatively, akin to January.
Position setups should adapt to short-term index corrections, leveraging earnings season for earnings-based spreads using index short hedging.


Investigating the Size and Timing of Korea's Local Dividend Arbitrage Traders' Position Liquidation

<ul>
<li>The Financial Services Commission plans to delegate merger swap ratio determination to corporate autonomy. Initially, only mergers between non-affiliated companies will be affected, with potential extension to affiliate mergers later.</li>
<li>The Financial Services Commission aims to start the legislative process in mid-February and complete the amendment by the third quarter of this year.</li>
<li>This change will enhance trading dynamics by decreasing the likelihood of prices aligning with the ratio just before merger announcements due to pre-information leakage.</li>
</ul>


The Financial Services Commission plans to delegate merger swap ratio determination to corporate autonomy. Initially, only mergers between non-affiliated companies will be affected, with potential extension to affiliate mergers later.
The Financial Services Commission aims to start the legislative process in mid-February and complete the amendment by the third quarter of this year.
This change will enhance trading dynamics by decreasing the likelihood of prices aligning with the ratio just before merger announcements due to pre-information leakage.


Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea

<ul>
<li>KRX's lack of a standardized English translation platform may lead to non-standardized terminology and varying translation quality. KRX stresses cross-checking Korean and English disclosures due to potential errors. </li>
<li>The 3-day lag between Korean and English disclosures poses timeliness challenges, requiring consistent cross-checking. Overall, the process for foreign investors using Korean market disclosure sites remains largely unchanged.</li>
<li>The common procedure should still be to first check disclosures using English titles, then convert to Korean for reading. If English disclosures exist, utilize them for cross-checking.</li>
</ul>


KRX's lack of a standardized English translation platform may lead to non-standardized terminology and varying translation quality. KRX stresses cross-checking Korean and English disclosures due to potential errors. 
The 3-day lag between Korean and English disclosures poses timeliness challenges, requiring consistent cross-checking. Overall, the process for foreign investors using Korean market disclosure sites remains largely unchanged.
The common procedure should still be to first check disclosures using English titles, then convert to Korean for reading. If English disclosures exist, utilize them for cross-checking.


KRX's Mandatory English Disclosure Debut: A Detailed Guide on Utilizing This Without Confusion

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS' US$8.2bn Allocation

The NPS and KRW as said to be discussing the creation of the Korea Value-Up Index and the NPS could benchmark KRW 11tn to the index. We look at...

Brian Freitas

Korea NPS Abruptly Joins Corporate Value Up Program: According to Document Obtained from NPS

Three days ago, NPS announced three external managers for the Value-up initiative: Bearing, Woori, and Truston. Today, new information has surfaced...

Sanghyun Park

Investigating the Size and Timing of Korea's Local Dividend Arbitrage Traders' Position Liquidation

This post delves into the size and timing of position liquidation by local dividend arbitrage traders in Korea, exploring potential subsequent...

Sanghyun Park

Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea

Today, the FSC announced legislative plans regarding mandatory disclosures for mergers mentioned in this post and voluntary determination of merger...

Sanghyun Park

KRX's Mandatory English Disclosure Debut: A Detailed Guide on Utilizing This Without Confusion

This post is a comprehensive guide on utilizing KRX's inaugural mandatory English disclosures without confusion, which began today.

Sanghyun Park