Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Tensions in the Korean peninsula have risen this year, as the war of words between President Trump and Kim Jong-eun has escalated and North Korea’s steady stream of missile tests have tried the patience of China, the US, Japan and South Korea. Three days into his five nation Asian Tour, in Japan, President Trump fired another warning shot at North Korea saying ‘Together with our allies, America’s warriors are prepared to defend our nation using the full range of our unmatched capabilities’. Is Mr Kim cowering in fear?  We doubt it.Despite heightened security risks, the South Korean economy and its stock market are holding up remarkably well. This is in line with our expectations. Korea’s growth outlook is remains in good shape. Consensus has consistently underestimated the strength of the export-led recovery. The on-going crisis in the Korean peninsula bears watching but for now the economic upswing is strengthening and broadening.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula have risen this year, as the war of words between President Trump and Kim Jong-eun has escalated and North Korea’s steady stream of missile tests have tried the patience of China, the US, Japan and South Korea. Three days into his five nation Asian Tour, in Japan, President Trump fired another warning shot at North Korea saying ‘Together with our allies, America’s warriors are prepared to defend our nation using the full range of our unmatched capabilities’. Is Mr Kim cowering in fear?  We doubt it.Despite heightened security risks, the South Korean economy and its stock market are holding up remarkably well. This is in line with our expectations. Korea’s growth outlook is remains in good shape. Consensus has consistently underestimated the strength of the export-led recovery. The on-going crisis in the Korean peninsula bears watching but for now the economic upswing is strengthening and broadening.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&amp;N while India’s state banks have been in suspended animation since 2015.</li>
<li>China has a structural surplus of savings and India a shortage (partly because of the cultural gold obsession), driving a weak credit multiplier, underinvestment and requiring high real rates.</li>
<li>The convoluted recapitalization plan aims to boost credit growth standing at just over 6% y/y (down 4.7ppts in a year)…</li>
</ul>


Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&amp;N while India’s state banks have been in suspended animation since 2015.
China has a structural surplus of savings and India a shortage (partly because of the cultural gold obsession), driving a weak credit multiplier, underinvestment and requiring high real rates.
The convoluted recapitalization plan aims to boost credit growth standing at just over 6% y/y (down 4.7ppts in a year)…


India Props Up State Banks Yet Again, Korean Chaebol Moment of Truth

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/c8O6ImmSJp5" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/c8O6ImmSJp5</a> 10:17 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/036/050/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1508418570" data-smartkarma-image-id="36050"></figure><div class="content-caption">Asia equity webcast</div>Looking forward sectors in Asia that are sensitive to a stronger USD and best to rotate into counters that benefit form a USD rise.Japan Nikkei has been the space we have been adding to stock exposure given our call for a bull break above 21k and for the USD/JPY to turn higher on the back of higher US yields.This 5-year yield chart has been featured frequently over recent weeks. We called a…

 To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/c8O6ImmSJp5 10:17 min.Asia equity webcastLooking forward sectors in Asia that are sensitive to a stronger USD and best to rotate into counters that benefit form a USD rise.Japan Nikkei has been the space we have been adding to stock exposure given our call for a bull break above 21k and for the USD/JPY to turn higher on the back of higher US yields.This 5-year yield chart has been featured frequently over recent weeks. We called a…

Asia Trim Call and Where We Are Adding Back

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Global technicals remain on a bullish footing. There’s a lot to like across global markets, chart-wise, particularly the catering-sized amount of base patterns. These patterns, which act as foundations for rallies, are visible throughout developed and emerging markets, pointing to another leg higher and endorsing our positive outlook.In our October Strategy (See attached), we highlight actionable themes in EM, Energy, and materials.  The attached document also contains links to an in-depth analysis of each of our 12 sectors.

Global technicals remain on a bullish footing. There’s a lot to like across global markets, chart-wise, particularly the catering-sized amount of base patterns. These patterns, which act as foundations for rallies, are visible throughout developed and emerging markets, pointing to another leg higher and endorsing our positive outlook.In our October Strategy (See attached), we highlight actionable themes in EM, Energy, and materials.  The attached document also contains links to an in-depth analysis of each of our 12 sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Japan Breaking Out, Europe in Recovery

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>Geopolitical tension has sharply escalated in the wake of yet another North Korean missile launch aimed in Japan’s general direction. For many investors already worried about overstretched valuations in global risk assets this could have been the perfect trigger for a sell-off. Yet, financial markets have been remarkably resilient. Is this just further evidence of a complacent bubble-mentality amongst global investors or something else? We also consider potential downside hedges in case…

SummaryGeopolitical tension has sharply escalated in the wake of yet another North Korean missile launch aimed in Japan’s general direction. For many investors already worried about overstretched valuations in global risk assets this could have been the perfect trigger for a sell-off. Yet, financial markets have been remarkably resilient. Is this just further evidence of a complacent bubble-mentality amongst global investors or something else? We also consider potential downside hedges in case…

The Market Sentimentalist - Cock-A-Doodle-Doo

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea: Ahead of Consensus

Tensions in the Korean peninsula have risen this year, as the war of words between President Trump and Kim Jong-eun has escalated and North Korea’s...

Sharmila Whelan

India Props Up State Banks Yet Again, Korean Chaebol Moment of Truth

Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&N while India’s state...