Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.</li>
<li>We are also upgrading our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI (after being neutral since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision).</li>
<li>We dedicated last week's Int'l Compass(April 16) to Technology, and we're doing it again today. With the market breaking out from its multi-month consolidation, Technology is likely to continue leading</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.
We are also upgrading our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI (after being neutral since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision).
We dedicated last week's Int'l Compass(April 16) to Technology, and we're doing it again today. With the market breaking out from its multi-month consolidation, Technology is likely to continue leading


Overweight Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish; Technology Remains in Focus

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook</li>
<li>Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook
Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs


Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...</li>
<li>...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."</li>
<li>That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...
...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."
That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term


Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns</li>
<li>The bulk of new buy ideas that we see continue to be within commodity Sectors (Energy, Materials, with Materials highlighted today) and defensives (Health Care, Telecomm, and Services highlighted today)</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns
The bulk of new buy ideas that we see continue to be within commodity Sectors (Energy, Materials, with Materials highlighted today) and defensives (Health Care, Telecomm, and Services highlighted today)


Can Strength Continue for Korea, Taiwan, and EM?; Remain Overweight But Be Prepared for Volatility

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Overweight Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish; Technology Remains in Focus

Overweight Global Technology; Upgrading Near-Term Outlook to Bullish to Match Intermediate-Term Outlook; Technology Remains in Focus, Same as Last...

Vermilion Research

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the action in stock and commodity markets impacted by the...

Rikki Malik

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Can Strength Continue for Korea, Taiwan, and EM?; Remain Overweight But Be Prepared for Volatility

Can Strength Continue for Korea $EWY, Taiwan $EWT, and EM $EEM?; Remain Overweight But Be Prepared for Volatility. Bulk of new buy ideas continue...

Vermilion Research