Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2</a> in December.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the KOSPI2 in December.


KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.


KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> reactions.</li>
<li>
Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical KOSPI 200 reactions.

Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.

Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.


KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25</li>
</ul>


How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25


South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

There could be 49 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in Sep. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add and 3 MidCap adds. There are...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

There could be 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in Sep. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add and 3 MidCap adds. There are 2...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision

Ahead of the Bank of Korea’s July 10 rate decision, option pricing implies larger-than-usual index moves. This Insight outlines two event-driven...

Gaudenz Schneider

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

There could be 49 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in Sep. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add and 3 MidCap adds. There are...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

​Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

There could be 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in Sep. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add and 3 MidCap adds. There are 2...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision

Ahead of the Bank of Korea’s July 10 rate decision, option pricing implies larger-than-usual index moves. This Insight outlines two event-driven...

Gaudenz Schneider

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

​A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...