Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Recent Stock market action hints at what is to come</li>
<li>Indications that there is something brewing in the uranium space</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Recent Stock market action hints at what is to come
Indications that there is something brewing in the uranium space


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow</li>
<li>An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes</li>
<li>We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow
An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes
We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> gained 9.8% in September MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 18.3%, but redemptions limited AUM growth to 15%.</li>
<li>Units declined across every long-leveraged ETF, while the inverse product added 10% more units despite losing 20.2%.</li>
<li>Annualised 21-day volatility fell from approximately 135% to 42%, coinciding with regulatory restrictions and a collapse in leveraged ETF flows and turnover.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 9.8% in September MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 18.3%, but redemptions limited AUM growth to 15%.
Units declined across every long-leveraged ETF, while the inverse product added 10% more units despite losing 20.2%.
Annualised 21-day volatility fell from approximately 135% to 42%, coinciding with regulatory restrictions and a collapse in leveraged ETF flows and turnover.


Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Volatility Falls as 2x ETF Trading Activity Slumps

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK hynix (000660 KS)</a> gained 11.2% in September MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 20.9%, but combined AUM increased only 10% as redemptions offset performance.</li>
<li>Units outstanding fell across all seven long leveraged ETFs. In contrast, units in the inverse product more than doubled and its market capitalisation rose 56%, despite negative performance.</li>
<li>Annualised 21-day volatility more than halved from its late-July peak of 179% to 55%. The decline coincided with the collapse in ETF trading activity and fund flows following regulatory changes.</li>
</ul>



SK hynix (000660 KS) gained 11.2% in September MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 20.9%, but combined AUM increased only 10% as redemptions offset performance.
Units outstanding fell across all seven long leveraged ETFs. In contrast, units in the inverse product more than doubled and its market capitalisation rose 56%, despite negative performance.
Annualised 21-day volatility more than halved from its late-July peak of 179% to 55%. The decline coincided with the collapse in ETF trading activity and fund flows following regulatory changes.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): Volatility Falls to 55% as Leveraged ETF Activity Fades

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Overview #47 – Are We There Yet?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent market action and the changing leadership in the markets

Rikki Malik

Major 2026 Investment Themes

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Volatility Falls as 2x ETF Trading Activity Slumps

Despite positive performance, redemptions persisted across long-leveraged ETFs, while the inverse product attracted new units. Falling activity...

Gaudenz Schneider

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Volatility Falls to 55% as Leveraged ETF Activity Fades

Despite positive performance, some long-leveraged ETFs lost AUM, while the inverse product attracted significant assets. Collapsing investor...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #47 – Are We There Yet?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent market action and the changing leadership in the markets

Rikki Malik

Major 2026 Investment Themes

​A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Volatility Falls as 2x ETF Trading Activity Slumps

Despite positive performance, redemptions persisted across long-leveraged ETFs, while the inverse product attracted new units. Falling activity...

Gaudenz Schneider

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Volatility Falls to 55% as Leveraged ETF Activity Fades

Despite positive performance, some long-leveraged ETFs lost AUM, while the inverse product attracted significant assets. Collapsing investor...

Gaudenz Schneider

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.