Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).</li>
<li>SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. </li>
<li>Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.</li>
</ul>


The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).
SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. 
Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. </li>
<li>Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. 
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. 


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD481.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD748mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD481.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD748mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 29th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Korean government has introduced policies ahead of April's elections, with a recent notable announcement addressing the "Korea Discount" by enhancing low PBR stock valuations.</li>
<li>A leading proposal involves creating an index of low PBR companies. There are hints of listing ETFs tracking this index, with potential directives compelling pension funds to invest.</li>
<li>Identifying early inclusions is vital. High-likelihood candidates are low PBR large caps with maintained earnings, dividends/share buyback potential, including Hyundai Dept, E-Mart, Hyundai Steel, IBK, Korean Re, &amp; DL E&amp;C.</li>
</ul>


The Korean government has introduced policies ahead of April's elections, with a recent notable announcement addressing the "Korea Discount" by enhancing low PBR stock valuations.
A leading proposal involves creating an index of low PBR companies. There are hints of listing ETFs tracking this index, with potential directives compelling pension funds to invest.
Identifying early inclusions is vital. High-likelihood candidates are low PBR large caps with maintained earnings, dividends/share buyback potential, including Hyundai Dept, E-Mart, Hyundai Steel, IBK, Korean Re, &amp; DL E&amp;C.


Identifying Specific Implementation Plans for Korea's Low-PBR Improvement Policy

<ul>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.</li>
<li>Despite the company's emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.</li>
<li>The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. </li>
</ul>


Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.
Despite the company's emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.
The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

South Korea

Korean Reinsurance Company is a reinsurer which underwrites life and non-life insurance.  The Company's products include life, fire, marine, auto, casualty, guarantee, pension, long-term, and foreign reinsurance.

Price Gauge
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Korean Reinsurance Co (003690 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be...

Douglas Kim

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 29th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Identifying Specific Implementation Plans for Korea's Low-PBR Improvement Policy

You'll find the Excel file with targeted names related to low PBR attached below in the DISCUSSION Section. I screened based on estimated consensus...

Sanghyun Park

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be...

Douglas Kim

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 29th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Naver, Samsung Electronics, Alteogen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Identifying Specific Implementation Plans for Korea's Low-PBR Improvement Policy

You'll find the Excel file with targeted names related to low PBR attached below in the DISCUSSION Section. I screened based on estimated consensus...

Sanghyun Park

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

​Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...